Category: Fansure Feed

2021 Championship Odds: Ranked

Post author By Vijay Shravah
Post date May 13, 2021

Now that the NBA’s regular season is wrapping up and we’re on the brink of the inaugural play-in tournament, it’s time to start predictions: who’s most likely to be crowned the first post-Bubble and (hopefully) last COVID-era champs?

These playoffs should be wildly unique and unpredictable, to say the least: even the best teams that were most favored to win prior to the start of the 2020-21 season have all battled issues related to COVID, injuries, and fan-less arenas.

Without further ado, here are the reversed 2021 title odds rankings for all 20 teams, including those expected to be in the play-in tournament:

20. Charlotte Hornets (VegasInsider Rank: T-18, +25000)

Though the Hornets haven’t had an awful season, they seem to be limping down the stretch. Gordon Hayward is doubtful for the play-in tournament. LaMelo Ball, the heavy ROY favorite (-2500, per VegasInsider), has struggled with consistency – shooting 40% in his first 7 games returning from a wrist injury, which was originally presumed to be season-ending. Expecting a 19-year old to lead them past the play-in seems ambitious. Positioning in the play-in seems irrelevant as they seem to be a notch below the other 3 presumed play-in teams (Boston, Indiana, and Washington).

Still, this team has reason to be excited with some bright young stars and a franchise player to build around (once he fully recovers).

19. San Antonio Spurs (VegasInsider Rank: T-18, +25000)

Losing 7 of their last 10, it feels like this team is on the verge of a long overdue rebuild. Greg Popovich and the Spurs will likely lose the first play-in game and miss the playoffs for the second straight season – after qualifying for 22 (!!) consecutive years. They’ll likely enter the play-in as the 10th seed and play either the Grizzlies or Warriors – both led by point guards who alone have orders of magnitude more firepower that the entire Spurs team has. It would be a huge shock if they can even win that first play-in game.

18. Indiana Pacers (VegasInsider Rank: 21, +50000)

17. Boston Celtics (VegasInsider Rank: T-12, +6600)

To quote Tom Haberstroh, this is a lost season for the Celtics. COVID protocols and injuries have gotten the best of them. In fact, according to Fansure’s analytics, they lead the league – by far – in player days missed due to COVID protocols:

Full dashboard here: https://fansure.com/user/fansureFeed/detail/608

16. Washington Wizards (VegasInsider Rank: T-16, +20000)

15. Memphis Grizzlies (VegasInsider Rank: T-16, +20000)

14. Atlanta Hawks (VegasInsider Rank: T-10, +5000)

13. New York Knicks (VegasInsider Rank: 14, +8000)

Tom Thibodeau and Derrick Rose still think it’s 2011. At least, that’s the only reason I can think of as to why the Knicks are – dare I say – relevant.

Julius Randle is going to get All-NBA consideration, and rightfully so. Even if they get ousted in the first round, the fact that they’re on anyone’s radar seems immensely satisfying for this long-suffering franchise – even if they’re about to witness their lesser known rivals make a deep run.

12. LA Lakers (VegasInsider Rank: T-2, +500)

No, this isn’t a typo. It feels strange to rank them this low, but hear me out:

LeBron /AD/Schröder injuries
Drummond/AD spacing and chemistry issues
Supporting cast is much, much worse than last year
70-day off-season that they never quite recovered from

Does this look insurmountable to defend their 2020 crown? It does to me. It appears they’ve come to terms that they will need to rest everyone for the play-in. As Amin Elhassan said on the Habershow podcast, LeBron could in theory sit out the first play-in game since it doesn’t really matter whether they’re the 7th or 8th seed. I’m not quite ready to say they’ll lose the play-in games, but for them to fight for their playoff lives and hope that they can overcome their injury and continuity issues for a championship run seems far fetched to say the least.

Most importantly, the Lakers will get a pass here if they fall short in the eyes of fans and the media alike, thus giving them the out and positioning themselves to recover for next season.

11. Golden State Warriors (VegasInsider Rank: 15, +15000)

Why does this feel like We Believe 2.0? Because Steph Curry is having a historically great season and will win the scoring title? Because Draymond has somehow anchored this defense to be Top 5 (!!) in the league? Because their supporting cast has somehow suddenly gained confidence in the last six weeks?

Probably all of the above. Chef Curry’s insane hot streak and the team’s sudden cohesion seems too good to be true. And it probably is. Make no mistake: the Dubs are still woefully underequipped and inexperienced for any kind of playoff run. While Andrew Wiggins has shown flashes of offensive and defensive brilliance in spurts, history tells us he won’t be a dependable 2nd offensive option. I can see this team making some noise during the play-in games, but ultimately the lights will be too bright for the admirable-but-subpar supporting cast.

But because Steph and Draymond have never been better, I’m giving them a puncher’s chance to get out of the first round and be well-positioned to “upset” the Lakers in the first play-in game.

10. Portland Trail Blazers (VegasInsider Rank: T-12, +6600)

9. Dallas Mavericks (VegasInsider Rank: T-10, +5000)

The Blazers and Mavs both check a lot of boxes here:

Transcendent franchise player? Check
Reliable 2nd star? Check
Experienced bench + depth? Check

And yet, these teams still feel far away from making any kind of serious playoff push. Porzingis can’t seem to stay healthy in crucial moments (e.g. 2020 vs. a Clipper team that was ripe for an upset), and the team overall has struggled to find consistency all year.

Similarly, Portland seems to be a dark horse pick every year but can’t seem to get past teams ahead of them. They struggle mightily on defense – the NBA’s 2nd worst in defensive rating. That won’t get it done and is a recipe for a first round exit.

8. Phoenix Suns (VegasInsider Rank: 7, +1400)

7. Denver Nuggets (VegasInsider Rank: 8, +2500)

6. Utah Jazz (VegasInsider Rank: 4, +700)

I need to address all the Mountain West teams at once; while Denver is unfortunately shorthanded without Jamal Murray, they have won 11 of their last 15 games and Michael Porter Jr has embraced the co-star role with presumed MVP Nikola Jokic. Aaron Gordon has been a seamless addition, and they seem to be the Clippers’ kryptonite. I can see them giving everyone but the Nets trouble en route to a title. Still, it’s hard to see this team getting out of the West without Murray’s firepower.

That leaves us with the West’s #1 and 2 seeds, which have never felt weaker compared to years past. Utah has been without its All-Star backcourt of Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley Jr for some time. Can they hit the on-switch when it matters most? Sure, they can probably take down whoever ends up as the 8th seed, but they don’t seem equipped to make it out of the West.

Phoenix is even more of a wild card. How will Devin Booker perform in his playoff debut? How about DeAndre Ayton? Can 36-year old Chris Paul lead this team if they were to face, say, the Lakers in Round 1 (if healthy)? Sure Paul has been fantastic – particularly in the clutch – but we’ve seen this before from him during the regular season. Overall, inexperience kills in a grueling 7-game series, and that will come back to bite them eventually.

Can a #1 and 2 seed be upset in the first round? Don’t be surprised to see this happen for the first time.

5. Milwaukee Bucks (VegasInsider Rank: 6, +900)

Although they didn’t dominate the regular season as they did the last two years, this team feels better than before with their retooled roster. Jrue Holiday is a huge upgrade over Eric Bledsoe. Khris Middleton has had a sneaky good season. PJ Tucker should help them with the intangibles.

And yet, both Vegas and I don’t see the Bucks as serious threats. Mike Budenholzer has had his struggles adjusting in playoff situations before, and I don’t see them getting past the 2nd round. They’ll likely face off against Brooklyn, whom they beat twice recently in a back-to-back set, but barely (by 3 and 6 points) and didn’t have to deal with James Harden.

4. Philadelphia 76ers (VegasInsider Rank: 5, +800)

Daryl Morey and Doc Rivers have shown why they will always have jobs, no matter how much they are scapegoated in their previous respective stints with the Rockets and Clippers. They have retooled Philly’s roster to become a defensive powerhouse, and appear to have the two-headed monster of Embiid and Simmons playing well together – despite many people being convinced that the two can’t co-exist.

That being said, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them being ousted in the 2nd round to their likely opponent, our #3 ranked team:

3. Miami Heat (VegasInsider Rank: 9, +3500)

We’ve seen this movie before: a team that seemingly has struggles during the regular season, doesn’t even get homecourt advantage in the first round, and just romps through the conference. Combine the fact that their mediocre record can be attributed to being the 4th-most affected team by COVID, and they appear to be just as formidable as last year heading into the postseason.

Not so coincidentally, the Heat have been playing extremely well of late and clearly won’t be afraid of anyone seeded ahead of them. Jimmy Butler has taught us not to underestimate his team before.

Here we go again this year: the Heat have won 6 of their last 7 – and btw, Jimmy missed that one loss.

2. Brooklyn Nets (VegasInsider Rank: 1, +230)

Despite having played 7 games together, the Big 3 of KD, Harden, and Kyrie are perceived as impossibly difficult to defeat in a playoff series. And rightfully so; despite missing literally months of action, both KD and Harden seem to always hit the ground running.

KD after missing 27 games: 17p, 7r, 5a, +22 in 18 minutes
Harden after missing 20 of 21 games: 18p, 11a, 7r in 25 minutes

Do these guys even need to play together before the playoffs? Does rhythm and chemistry building even matter for them? It doesn’t look that way, and their 1st round matchup against one of the play-in teams should suffice as a warm-up period.

1.LA Clippers (VegasInsider Rank: T-2, +500)

Despite how great they’ve looked during stretches of the season and the veteran leadership they acquired this year, this team somehow feels slept on. Paul George might have some classic ‘Pandemic P’ performances, but the team has surrounded itself with enough talent to offset any off-nights that he might have. Given that the West looks somewhat weaker than before, the Clippers’ strengths will overcome their flaws – unless they face Denver again.

Also, despite their load managing practices and on-and-off availability of their top players, check out where they rank as a team this season:

3P% – 1st
3PM – 3rd (behind Utah and Portland)
Net Rating – 2nd (behind Utah)
FT% – 1st

For a team that was coasting, that’s pretty good.

I expect them to win the West with relative ease and face off against Brooklyn in what should be an epic Finals showdown. I give an ever-so-slight edge to the Clippers only because I’m not sure how KD will hold up over the course of an entire playoff run with his hamstring and Achilles issues. That, and the Nets winning would make a complete mockery out of the regular season.

In either case, the real winner: load management.

Tags 2021 NBA Playoffs

Fansure Feed

NBA COVID Tracker

Post author By Fansure Inc
Post date March 15, 2021

The 2020-21 and 2021-2022 NBA seasons has been mired by the COVID-19 pandemic. Several games were postponed, and many players have been forced to miss time due to possible exposure and subsequent protocols put in place by the league.

To keep better track of teams and players impacted by COVID-19 protocol, Fansure is providing an up-to-date resource that can be used to stay on top of the latest player-related news related to COVID-19 protocols.

Here’s the NBA COVID-19 tracker, courtesy of Fansure data scientists Cole Kazemba and Nikhil Morar. Click on the figure below to view a fully interactive version of the data:

For any questions or for more information, please contact us at info@fansure.com!

Like our data and want to see more? Please fill out this questionnaire to connect with one of our team members.

Tags COVID-19, COVID-19 Tracker, NBA COVID Tracker

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US Betting Report Covers Fansure’s Strategic Partnership With Sportradar

Post author By Fansure Inc
Post date March 5, 2021

Original post: https://usbettingreport.com/news/fansure-and-sportsradar-announce-strategic-partnership/

On Wednesday this week, Fansure Founder and CEO Vijay Shravah announced that Fansure has entered a strategic partnership with Sportradar.

Once we heard this exciting news, we connected with Co-founder & VP of Product, Jordan Pascasio, who was answered a few quick questions about Fansure, how the company started and their plans for the future

How would you describe Fansure’s business model and Unique Selling Proposition?

Pascasio. Fansure provides content automation solutions to help sports betting platforms drive fan behavior. Our scenario-relevant insights optimize how digital publishers monetize their audience and how native applications drive event conversions.

We currently support player prop and team markets for the core four U.S. professional sports leagues, and have plans to expand into amateur sports leagues (NCAA) soon.

In terms of distribution, we recently secured a strategic partnership with Sportradar, a global leader in delivering sports data and content to media companies, sports federations and the betting industry, to provide innovative player prop and team betting insights to their robust client base.

How did you get started and from where did you get the idea?

Pascasio. Our sports betting content automation solutions, which are B2B, actually started as a B2C iOS app called TRNDS Sports. The TRNDS Sports app was a mobile backtesting tool that allowed users to quickly discover and analyze a team’s historical profitability under any scenario.

While operating the B2C application, we experimented with generating crude betting trends CSVs for an upcoming week or day and selling those lists to media entities that were interested in injecting the data into their content. After seeing initial success with a product that was essentially a hacked together prototype, we decided to devote dev resources to building out public and partner API infrastructure. From there, we were off and running.

A lot of companies provide sports betting data. Can you explain, in layman’s terms, how data is uniquely served within your product?

Pascasio. We specifically focus on contextualizing data for the average or new sports bettor through historical insights. To quote a recent whitepaper published by Sportradar, integrating historic data references helps to reinforce the storyline surrounding what is happening, how it is happening, and why it is happening – otherwise referred to as ‘the plot’.

Our goal is to streamline access to this type of data, allowing media companies and native apps to easily map to the insights, create narratives around them and ultimately leverage them to drive behavior.

We are excited about our player prop insights segment as we think that the high overlap between fantasy sports and sports betting (89% of sports bettors play fantasy sports according to HPL Digital Sport) can be a conduit for the fantasy crowd who have yet to cross over.

Player props facilitate that transition nicely as the markets and supportive data are less optically daunting than traditional markets, such as the Spread or Total, for first-time bettors. Having the prior experience of playing fantasy sports and conducting the necessary research around statistics such as touchdowns or rebounds is a more familiar exercise for players.

What betting scenarios or data features are most commonly requested by your user base? What type of new products or features are on your roadmap?

Pascasio. Player-level / prop insights were a huge request that we received in the early days when our data was solely team-based. As stated above, it was clear to us that there was a significant path to growth if we expanded to offer those markets.

Content automation solutions such as dynamic widgets and embeddable data tables are other products that we frequently receive inquiries for. We are very bullish on these types of low/no-code products that can help media entities elevate their content in a frictionless and scalable manner. As such, they are prioritized on our roadmap. Currently, we are focused on refining our insights-as-a-service APIs, i.e. the pipes, of which we will then build the content automation tools on top of.

Tags #sportsbetting, #sportsdata, Sportradar

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Fansure Announces Strategic Partnership with Sportradar

Post author By Fansure Inc
Post date March 3, 2021

Fansure Inc. (“Fansure” or “The Company”) today announced that it has entered into a strategic partnership with Sportradar, the leading global provider of sports betting and sports entertainment products and services, to provide innovative player prop and team betting insights.

Sportradar sits at the intersection of the sports, media and betting industries, which affords Fansure access to unique opportunities and more than 1,000 companies in over 80 countries.

“We are thrilled to roll out our content automation solutions for betting enterprises via Sportradar’s global distribution network. Our product fits nicely within Sportradar’s recently launched Insights platform as we are both focused on driving engagement and fan behavior. We’re also excited to leverage Sportradar’s deep industry relationships to drive product awareness.” said Fansure’s Founder and CEO Vijay Shravah.

The partnership occurs at an opportune time as legal breakthroughs across the United States are helping to bring the sports betting industry into the mainstream like never before. As legal restrictions to online sportsbooks come down, the industry has new opportunities to integrate betting into other pillars of the sports entertainment experience for increased visibility, accessibility, and convenience.

About Fansure

Fansure provides content automation solutions to help sports betting platforms drive fan behavior. Our scenario-relevant insights optimize how digital publishers monetize their audience and how native applications drive event conversions. The Company currently supports player prop and team markets for the core four US professional sports leagues, and has plans to expand into amateur sports leagues soon.

About Sportradar

Sportradar is the global provider of sports betting and sports entertainment products and services. Established in 2001, the company occupies a unique position at the intersection of the sports, media and betting industries, providing sports federations, news media, consumer platforms and sports betting operators with a range of solutions to help grow their business. Sportradar employs over 2,000 people in more than 30 locations around the world. It is our commitment to excellent service, quality and reliability that makes us the trusted partner of more than 1,000 companies in over 80 countries and official partner of the NBA, NFL, NHL, MLB, NASCAR, FIFA and UEFA. We monitor, analyze and deliver insights from more than 720,000 matches annually across 75 sports. With deep industry relationships, Sportradar is not just redefining the sports fan experience; it also safeguards the sports themselves through its Integrity Services division and advocacy for an integrity-driven environment for all involved.

www.sportradar.com

Tags Sportradar

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2020-21 NBA Season Award Predictions

Post author By Vijay Shravah
Post date December 22, 2020

As we approach opening night, nine of our team members put together their award predictions for the upcoming season. Here’s how the Fansure team sees everything playing out:

Part One:

Award	Marcellus Wiley	Tom Haberstroh	Vijay	Scott	Cole
MVP	Luka Dončić	Luka Dončić	Luka Dončić	Luka Dončić	Luka Dončić
ROY	LaMelo Ball	Deni Avdija	LaMelo Ball	LaMelo Ball	James Wiseman
DPOY	Anthony Davis	Ben Simmons	Giannis Antetokounmpo	Anthony Davis	Ben Simmons
6MOY	Lou Williams	Shake Milton	Spencer Dinwiddie	Caris LeVert	Dennis Schröder
Most Improved	Michael Porter Jr	Coby White	Christian Wood	Tyler Herro	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
COY	Monty Williams	Rick Carlisle	Rick Carlisle	Monty Williams	Doc Rivers
#1 East Seed	Brooklyn	Milwaukee	Milwaukee	Milwaukee	Milwaukee
#1 West Seed	LA Lakers	LA Clippers	Dallas	Denver	LA Lakers
East Champs	Brooklyn	Miami	Milwaukee	Milwaukee	Milwaukee
West Champs	LA Clippers	LA Lakers	LA Clippers	LA Lakers	LA Lakers
NBA Champs	LA Clippers	LA Lakers	LA Clippers	LA Lakers	LA Lakers
Finals MVP	Kawhi Leonard	Anthony Davis	Kawhi Leonard	Anthony Davis	LeBron James

Part Two:

Award	Jordan	Dan	Nikhil	Patrick
MVP	Luka Dončić	Luka Dončić	Luka Dončić	Luka Dončić
ROY	Obi Toppin	James Wiseman	LaMelo Ball	James Wiseman
DPOY	Bam Adebayo	Ben Simmons	Anthony Davis	Giannis Antetokounmpo
6MOY	Caris LeVert	Jordan Clarkson	Jordan Clarkson	Lou Williams
Most Improved	Coby White	Christian Wood	Christian Wood	Tyler Herro
COY	Brad Stevens	Monty Williams	Steve Nash	Erik Spoelstra
#1 East Seed	Milwaukee	Milwaukee	Milwaukee	Brooklyn
#1 West Seed	LA Lakers	LA Lakers	LA Lakers	LA Lakers
East Champs	Boston	Philadelphia	Milwaukee	Miami
West Champs	LA Lakers	LA Lakers	LA Lakers	LA Lakers
NBA Champs	LA Lakers	LA Lakers	LA Lakers	LA Lakers
Finals MVP	Anthony Davis	Anthony Davis	LeBron James	Anthony Davis

Analysis:

MVP: Despite this being the most contentiously debated title nearly every year, this is the only award that the team had a unanimous consensus on in terms of a prediction: Luka Dončić, who is a +400 to win the award, is our favorite to claim the Maurice Podoloff trophy. Dončić, a 21-year old Slovenian, is our pick to win his first MVP and would be the second-youngest player to ever win the title (Derrick Rose).

Luka Doncic is erasing the European prospect stigma, one highlight at a time - SBNation.com — Dončić is our unanimous MVP

Rookie of the Year: This should arguably be the toughest award to debate, given the pandemic has robbed us of learning anything about this year’s rookie class and has given us almost no data to inform our predictions. Most of the team, though, is split between James Wiseman and LaMelo Ball – the second and third picks in the 2020 NBA draft, respectively.

One-offs include Washington’s Devin Avdija and New York’s Obi Toppin. Avdija, Tom Haberstroh’s pick, is rumored to have been high on the Warriors’ ladder before they ended up going with Wiseman.

Defensive Player of the Year: Another category that our team was split on: AD is the slight favorite getting 3 votes, with Giannis and Ben Simmons tied for second place with 2 each.

Understandably, no one on the team picked two-time winners Kawhi Leonard (2015 & 2016) and Rudy Gobert (2018 & 2019) as only three players in NBA history have ever won the award more than twice (Ben Wallace and Dikembe Mutombo have each won 4, and Dwight Howard is the only player to have won three straight). Giannis, the 2020 recipient, is going to try to be the only player in NBA history to win MVP for the third straight year and win back-to-back DPOY titles.

Sixth Man of the Year: Relatively even split again here; Clarkson, LeVert, and Lou Williams (3-time winner) garnered two votes each. Lou is currently tied with Jamal Crawford for the most 6th man titles, and is poised to break that tie and become the only player to ever win 4.

Most Improved: This is one of the near-impossible awards to predict – especially with a very quick offseason for most players. Still, we saw a couple of players with multiple votes: Christian Wood (3) and Tyler Herro (2). In the bubble, Herro showed the world on the biggest stage how much he has already improved, leading some to wonder if he will be ‘penalized’ if he picks up where he left off after the NBA Finals. Michael Porter Jr. (Marcellus Wiley’s pick) could suffer that same ‘penalty’ with his play elevating Denver to an improbable conference finals appearance.

Coach of the Year: As the undefeated team (8-0) in the bubble, the Suns are positioned to make a big playoff push after adding CP3. This could be why Monty Williams is the slight majority winner in our panel with three votes. Unlike the other individual categories, this award seemed to have the most variability among our team with Carlisle being the only other coach to get multiple votes. 5 of the 9 votes were unique (Erik Spoelstra, Doc Rivers, Brad Stevens, and Steve Nash). 46% of NBA GMs consider Spoelstra to be the best coach today – making it seem odd that he hasn’t won the award yet.

Playoff Predictions:

Unsurprisingly, the Lakers are the Fansure team’s favorite to win both the West and the Finals, getting 75% of our votes. This is consistent with betting activity, with heavy money being put on the defending champs to repeat. The remaining two of our team members picked the “other” LA team to win – with Marcellus “Mr. Clippers” Wiley predictably being one of them. Of the six team members who are predicting a Laker title, four have picked LeBron’s running mate to win the Finals MVP honor. Could this be the year LeBron takes a back seat to his co-star?

Ultimately, the team unanimously foresees the Larry O’Brien trophy staying put at Staples.

Although the Lakers are favorites, not everyone has them pegged as the #1 seed; Dallas and Denver each received one vote for that title. This is likely not a knock on the Lakers, but rather the notion that LeBron and AD, whose team has had only a 72-day offseason, will commence significantly more load management during the regular season.

The East predictions show a little more variability; while most have Milwaukee again securing the #1 seed, the Nets, Celtics, and 76ers each received votes by our team to represent the East in the NBA Finals.

Tags Anthony Davis, Giannis Antetokounmpo, LA Clippers, LA Lakers, LeBron James, Luka Dončić, Milwaukee Bucks

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Why We Underestimated Jimmy Butler & the Heat

Post author By Vijay Shravah
Post date September 2, 2020

https://www.slamonline.com/nba/post-up-the-jimmy-butler-effect-2/ — LAKE BUENA VISTA, FLORIDA - AUGUST 31: Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat drives the ball against Marvin Williams #20 of the Milwaukee Bucks during the first quarter in Game One of the Eastern Conference Second Round during the 2020 NBA Playoffs at the Field House at ESPN Wide World Of Sports Complex on August 31, 2020 in Lake Buena Vista, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

“Nah, they’re not for real.”

Said Charles Barkley on Inside the NBA back on December 28th, right after an overtime win vs. the Sixers. This gave the Heat a five game winning streak along with a 24-8 record.

I’ll admit: despite Sir Charles’s well-documented inability to predict games accurately, I was in agreement with him at the time. While I’ve long been a Jimmy apologist to his critics (primarily Bulls fans), it was hard to see a team without at least two established star players making any kind of noise in the playoffs. After all, Miami came into the season with low expectations and play in a weak conference despite signing Butler as a free agent. Right before Barkley’s declaration, they had played against a Philly team that had lost their 10th of 14 road games – an ominous sign of things to come. The Heat were just in a honeymoon phase with their prized free agent signing, a rising star in Bam Adebayo, and some promising rookies, right? And were enjoying a favorable stretch of their schedule, right?

Wrong.

These Heat are for real. Fast forward to these Bubble Playoffs, where Miami just surprised many of us by handily defeating a heavy favorite #1 seed in Game 1. This took place shortly after disposing of an Indiana team with such ease that the Pacers decided to fire their coach.

So why did we (the majority) get the Heat wrong? It’s likely a combination of these three main reasons:

We overestimated Milwaukee
We underestimated Jimmy Butler
We undervalue cultural alignment between a team and its star player

Reason 1: We Overestimated Milwaukee

There’s a growing camp of folks who attributed Game 1’s loss to Miami as some combination of: Milwaukee’s overrated, Giannis is overrated, and the Bucks don’t have a closer. All of which are valid arguments.

ESPN’s Amin Elhassan – who had started a “Heat Island” prior to the start of the series as one of the few to predict an upset – cited several concerns about Milwaukee on Tom Haberstroh’s “Habershow” podcast. The rationale was based on the Bucks’ reputation (and Amin’s own observation) of continued failure to adjust over the course of a playoff series. Amin argued that they’ve traditionally banked on the fact that their talent and game plan will eventually win 4 games in a series. This faulty strategy manifested as long ago as last season, when the Bucks dropped Game 1 of the 2019 Eastern Conference Semis vs. Boston. While they eventually won the series – thanks in part to the Celtics’ chemistry issues that started to boil over – it appeared that part of the equation was the Bucks’ long-standing vulnerability.

The Bucks’s issues resurfaced as soon as the playoffs started, having dropped Game 1 by double digits to an overmatched Orlando Magic team. Unlike the Magic’s improbable Game 1 win in last year’s playoffs vs. the eventual 2019 champion Raptors, this was a convincing win that once again had us questioning Milwaukee’s ability to contend for a title. While it didn’t bite them in that series, those same concerns came full circle.

The criticism of Milwaukee starts with their franchise player, Giannis Antetokoumnpo. Just as after last year’s conference finals loss vs. Kawhi and the eventual-champ Raptors, Giannis’s ability to win playoff games is once again being questioned. When a good defensive team like Miami barracades the paint, Giannis’s ability to impact the game becomes limited and his weaknesses – primarily outside shooting – become more glaring. Going 4-12 from the foul line certainly doesn’t help that sentiment either.

Giannis Antetokounmpo: Free throws a bigger issue than 3-pointers — Giannis Antetokounmpo’s confidence at the free throw line has been shaky, missing 8 of 12 attempts in Game 1 on Sunday. Photo Credit: NBAE via Getty Images

Still, as much as we now pick apart Giannis and the Bucks, one can’t help but attribute Game 1’s loss to their opponent rather than themselves.

Reason 2: We Underestimated Jimmy Butler

Not your traditional superstar, Jimmy Butler didn’t become an elite player overnight. In fact, he was the final 1st round pick in 2011 when he was scouted as a potential defensive specialist – far from a potential franchise player and leader. A 10-year veteran, the 30-year old’s career stats haven’t screamed ‘superstar’: 17.0/5.1/3.7 in terms of points/rebs/assists with a 20.3 career PER. But his body of work has not gone unnoticed – especially by the media; he’s a five-time All-Star who’s been named All-NBA player twice (TBD for 2019-20) – both as a third team selection in 2016-17 and 2017-18. Despite ranking 55th in the league in Real Plus-Minus, he has earned a reputation for being a great defender from the get-go, having won All-Defense honors four times in his career.

Jimmy’s 40-point Game 1 outburst – where he completely dictated the game offensively and defensively – was a playoff career-high. Although a highly impressive performance and perhaps his greatest playoff game to date, that’s 15th among active players when purely looking at single game point production.

Rank	Player	Playoff Career High (Points)
1	Donovan Mitchell	57
2	LeBron James	51
3	Russell Westbrook	51
4	Kevin Durant	50
5	Jamal Murray	50
6	Damian Lillard	50
7	Paul George	49
8	Stephen Curry	47
9	Anthony Davis	47
10	Kawhi Leonard	45
11	James Harden	45
12	Nikola Jokić	43
13	Kyrie Irving	42
14	Giannis Antetokounmpo	41
15	Jimmy Butler	40

Source: Basketball Reference

The optics will tell you that Jimmy is a very good player, but not an elite playoff performer. What may not stick out in the history books is that particular performance came against the NBA’s #1 defense.

So have we underestimated Jimmy Butler, the individual? Maybe a little, but the eye test and superficial stats say not likely, as his play has translated into multiple All-Star, All-NBA and All-Defense selections. So that leaves one other possible reason we underestimated Miami…

Reason 3: We Undervalue Cultural Alignment Between Team and Its Star Player

Prior to this season, Jimmy was quickly given the above-average-player-who-can’t-get-along-with-teammates label. After all, it didn’t work out in Chicago. Or Minnesota. Or in some respects, Philadelphia. Whenever we see outspoken players experience chemistry issues on multiple teams, the conventional formula for these narratives is to blame the player (e.g. Kyrie) instead of the team(s).

In other words, the jury has always been out there on whether Jimmy can be a franchise player (or put up franchise player-worthy stats) – let alone whether he can get along with teammates. Here’s what we’ve never debated: his work ethic, will to win, year-to-year improvement, and status as arguably the league’s best small forward behind LeBron, Kawhi, and KD (when healthy).

The question with Jimmy, as with many players, is finding the right fit.

Culturally, it’s no secret that Butler can only function in a team that’s completely committed to hard work and winning. Jimmy is a notorious gym rat. So when he sees his teammates not put in a respectable level of effort, he calls them out. This obviously does not rub off well on many players in today’s NBA, and Butler hasn’t been shy about calling out teammates. It got him in trouble in Chicago, despite being co-signed by D-Wade. It got him in trouble in Minnesota. It was about to get him in trouble in Philly, but he and the Sixers figured out relatively quickly that he didn’t fit in. In an interview with his then-teammate JJ Redick, he detailed his butting heads with former teammates and his growing reputation as a “villain.” If his time in Miami so far has taught us anything, it’s that a team’s culture can be more important than its talent pool.

If Butler thought that Philly truly had a winning culture, he would have re-signed. If a deep playoff run that was ended by a miraculously clutch Kawhi buzzer beater wasn’t enough to convince him, that says a lot about what he felt. And after Philly got swept in the first round the year after they lost Butler to free agency, it’s safe to say the team is asking “what if?” Just ask Joel Embiid.

But work ethic and culture only gets you so far. One of the biggest key issues with team chemistry is, unsurprisingly, money; how the team manages its allocation to players is certainly an underlying issue with team chemistry. In other words, does a team compensate its players in accordance with its culture? And are the players on board with that structure? It’s often the elephant in the room in NBA locker rooms when player salaries are public.

YEAR	TEAM	SALARY	Team Rank
2011-12	Bulls	$821,748	12th
2012-13	Bulls	$1,066,920	12th
2013-14	Bulls	$1,112,880	10th
2014-15	Bulls	$2,008,748	10th
2015-16	Bulls	$15,257,500	2nd (D. Rose)
2016-17	Bulls	$16,402,209	2nd (D. Wade)
2017-18	Bulls-Wolves	$18,151,070	1st
2018-19	Wolves-Sixers	$19,295,779	2nd (J. Embiid)
2019-20	Heat	$32,742,000	1st

Jimmy Butler’s annual salary along with his team rank. Source: Capology.com

At a quick glance, he sure wasn’t in a Scottie Pippen-like situation. His main complaint from a contract perspective wasn’t with Chicago, but rather with the Wolves; although he was the highest paid at the time, it was primarily because the Wolves’ younger stars were on rookie contracts. That season, the team already committed lucrative extensions to Karl-Anthony Towns ($190M/5 years) and Andrew Wiggins ($146M/5 years) which would kick in the following season(s). Clearly, Minnesota positioned Towns and Wiggins to be their franchise cornerstones and put Jimmy lower on their priority list. So when the Wolves offered him $110M over 4 years, it’s easy to understand the frustration – especially since Jimmy didn’t believe Towns or Wiggins have the work ethic and mental makeup to turn the team into a winning franchise.

In short, it’s important for a franchise to put their money where their mouth is. And how they pay players speaks volumes about what their culture and mentality really is.

Now this isn’t to say that the Heat have always gotten this right. In fact, one can argue that Pat Riley grossly mismanaged the franchise’s all-time greatest asset, Dwyane Wade. Understandably, Riley was cautious about locking Wade in for long-term deals due to his chronic health issues. But on the other side, he deviated from his usual formula by offering questionable contracts to the likes of Hassan Whiteside in that same time period rather than reward Wade for his past sacrifices – most notably taking less money to orchestrate perhaps the biggest free agency splash of all-time in 2010 by bringing in LeBron and Chris Bosh. Feeling disrespected, Wade decided to leave Miami for Chicago out of principle – even though the Bulls didn’t give him much more ($47.5M/2 years) than what Miami offered ($40M/2 years).

Although Riley and Wade had since set aside their differences to bring Wade back for his final seasons, Wade’s disappointment in Riley could make it difficult for any future superstar to fully trust Riley to take care of them long term.

Jimmy Butler says he's, 'a little extra at times,' wants to deliver extra to Heat - South Florida Sun Sentinel - South Florida Sun-Sentinel — Photo Credit: Sun Sentinel

It’s safe to say Riley learned his lesson and didn’t want to repeat the mistakes of Jimmy’s former teams. He ignored all the “warning signs” and signed Butler to a 4-year $142M contract, establishing him as the franchise player from both a cultural and monetary perspective. He knew that the issues Butler had at his previous stints were a pure result of a lack of cultural fit and his former teams’ failure to understand his importance as a foundational piece.

Miami now has a clear direction, and a commitment to build around a hard-working star who is willing to accept the growing pains of a young team, but won’t accept less than full effort.

And so far, it’s working.

Tags 2020 NBA Playoffs, Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat

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The Fansure Index: Measuring the Superstar Effect

Post author By Cole Kazemba
Post date February 20, 2020

Superstardom and Dark Matter

How and when does an NBA player transcend from being simply an elite athlete to the near-mythical status of “superstardom”? With the obvious exception of LeBron James who was anointed a basketball King in his freshman year of high school, it is rarely obvious when this transition is happening. In retrospect, we can convince ourselves that the signs were there, but in truth there are many contributing factors that must come into alignment at just the right time for a player to emerge as a superstar. The multi-dimensional nature of superstardom makes it difficult to see as it is crystallizing. The elements that come together to form a superstar are a function of both on-court performance and off-court factors. When we have a superstar on our hands, these elements combine to form something that is greater than the sum of the individual parts.

Through the lens of a recovering rocket scientist, the alchemy of superstardom looks awfully like dark energy or dark matter – something that we do not have a descriptive framework for, but is pervasive and has very tangible effects that cannot be explained in its absence. Today, we at Fansure have made significant strides in peering behind the curtain of superstardom and quantified it with the Fansure Player Index. Solving the grand challenges of astrophysics will be left to our good friends over at NASA.

The Fansure Player Index

There is body of literature describing the observed economic effects of superstars [1-3]. Some of the most recent work in this area comes from our very own Scott Kaplan who has measured the impact of superstar popularity on secondary market ticket prices and Nielsen ratings (Figure 1). This research indicates that there are clearly a few tiers of players and only those in the upper echelon can individually move the needle for fans – as measured by ticket prices and viewership ratings.

**Ticket Price (top) and TV Ratings (bottom) Impacts for All NBA Players (Ranked by # of Fan All-Star Votes)**

What we are doing here is looking upstream of these end results to propose a metric that attempts to capture the contributing factors that generate a superstar and quantifies them through the Fansure Player Index. The direct on-court metrics which feed into the Fansure Player Index include a handful of well-known advanced metrics: John Hollinger’s Player Efficiency Rating (PER), ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus (RPM), Win Shares from Basketball Reference, and Game Score (also from John Hollinger). We synthesize all of these into one meta-advanced metric in an effort to balance out the imperfections of each statistic and get an average picture of the on-court contributions of each player.

In addition to the wonky advanced statistics, the Index also includes MVP odds and All-Star Votes. These factors are partially related to statistical performance, but also infuse some less tangible information into the Index regarding the perception of players. Finally, the Index includes fan-engagement related factors including the social media footprint. All of these metrics are rolled up into one number: The Fansure Player Index, where a “perfect” superstar is rated 100.

Future versions of the Index will include jersey sales to further inform the fan-engagement facet of superstardom and the number of “exciting” plays that a player creates (dunks, blocks, long-distance 3-pointers, for example) to add another dimension to the on-court performance of players.

To nobody’s surprise, LeBron James is an absolute outlier. What is insightful here is to see the moat between him and the rest of the back quantified. When healthy, the second highest player on the Fansure Player Index is Stephen Curry (rated at 60.6 before the start of the season). With Curry injured this season, Giannis is holding down the second spot en-route to his second straight MVP caliber season. The steady climb of Giannis’ Index rating over the last five seasons is shown in Figure 2. Still, Giannis and Curry are closer to the 10^th or 11^th player on the list than they are to King James.

**Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Fansure Index has risen meteorically since the 2014-15 NBA season**

Beyond LeBron, there are clearly a few tiers of players as measured by the Index. The Tier 1 players appear to end with Anthony Davis at #5 and include those you would expect (Curry and Durant are in this tier when healthy), but also indicate just how quickly Luka Doncic has exploded onto the scene. In all likelihood Zion Williamson will find himself in this category in the very near future. A perhaps surprising omission from this top tier is Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard, who pays a pretty substantial superstardom price for not being on social media.

The second tier of superstars includes Kawhi, Joel Embiid, Kyrie Irving, and Jimmy Butler. Beyond that, there is a relatively slowly decreasing cascade of players which, rounding out the top 20 players, we will call Tier 3.

**Fansure Player Index Distribution of the Top 20 Players**

Comparing the Index of players from last season to this season, we see that some of the biggest increases belong to the younger generation of players who are starting to shine and those who are experiencing resurgence years (Porzingis, Carmelo Anthony, and Dwight Howard). Despite having an impressive first season with the Clippers, Paul George has regressed from his near-MVP season last year, due in part to the injury he dealt with at the beginning of the season. As such, his All-Star vote totals and advanced statistics have taken a pretty appreciable step backward this season and, after being ranked as high as #6 last year, he has fallen to #13.

**Rising and Falling Players in the Fansure Player Index**

Summing It All Up

Fansure is a sports analytics company focused on predicting player availability that provides a variety of insights and services related to this core competency. In an effort to better understand the star players that dominate the NBA market we have developed a metric quantifying superstardom called the Fansure Player Index. This tool is being used to provide insights to everyone that is affected when superstar athletes are unavailable: fans, ticket retailers, teams, TV networks, fantasy sports participants, and the sports betting sector. We also use the Fansure Index to define the “top” players in our portfolio for our ticket protection product which provides fans a way to protect their in-game experience when their favorite player is absent and is live today at fansure.com.

Be sure to check back in after the final All-Star vote tallies have been announced when we will provide another update and also tell you about how we can measure franchise value using the cumulative contributions of the players on the court in addition to a similar index metric for team-related factors.

References

[1] Hausman and Leonard 1997, [2] Humphreys and Johnson 2017 [3] Kaplan 2020

Tags Astrophysics, Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, Luca Doncic, NBA, Stephen Curry, Superstars

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NBA “Load Management”

Post author By Vijay Shravah
Post date February 5, 2020

Load management has been among the most debated topics in the NBA so far in the 2019-20 season. When Kawhi Leonard sat out two nationally televised games within a week – including a highly anticipated rematch against Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks on Wednesday, November 6th – the media expressed their displeasure with the LA Clippers’ decision to sit out the defending Finals MVP, as did fans.

That criticism and a $50,000 fine hasn’t stopped the Clippers from preserving the long-term health of their prized free agency acquisition. He has now missed six of the Clippers’ first 19 games of the still-early NBA season with no signs of playing in full sets of upcoming back-to-back games.

The question is – what can anyone do about it? Well, at Fansure, we can protect the cost of your game tickets based on whether Kawhi plays. Our machine learning algorithm also gives us the ability to predict the likelihood of Kawhi (or any NBA player) sitting out of a specific game. Check out our future outlook for upcoming Clippers games:

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is kawhi-pg-sit-risk-11-28-19.jpg

For comparison’s sake, we included Paul George who recently recovered from shoulder surgeries in the offseason. So far, George has not seen any restrictions in playing time and has not missed any games since making his return. But, it is highly likely that the team will strategically rest him to preserve him for their highly expected deep playoff run.

While Kawhi has been considered the ‘face’ of load management, other notable players including Kristaps Porzingis, Damian Lillard, Russell Westbrook, and others have taken games off out of precaution this season.

If you are looking to buy tickets to a game to see Kawhi, George, or any star player, please check our website at https://fansure.com to protect your ticket purchase for upcoming games!

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Remembering Kobe

Post author By Scott Kaplan
Post date January 29, 2020

“If you really want to be great at something, you have to truly care about it. You have to obsess over it.”

-Kobe Bryant

This has been a really tough time for me and so many others. Before I share some words, I just want to say that I am heartbroken for Vanessa and Kobe’s three daughters & Gigi’s three sisters: Natalia, Bianka, and Capri. I cannot comprehend the pain, sadness, and grief they and the rest of the Bryant family are feeling, but I and so many others are thinking about them in such an awful time. I also want to remember the other victims and their families — the Altobelli’s, Chesters, Mausers, and Zobayans. It doesn’t matter how rich you are, your race or gender—tragedy can affect anyone and the pain you feel isn’t any easier to take.

Kobe was my idol. Plain and simple. To be honest, no one even came close. My room has always been decorated with Kobe memorabilia. I think the number of hours I’ve spent watching Kobe highlights exceeds the weeks (plural) threshold. And those that know me know that’s not an exaggeration. I have the 8, 24, and 33 jerseys. In my room right now I can count 4 pictures attributed to Kobe. Above my door hangs the “heroes come and go, but legends are forever” saying that defined Kobe. My phone background is from his 81-point game. The rookie card one of my best friends in high school (Alex) gave me sits in the nightstand next to my bed. The “Mamba Mentality” book Kobe recently published that I received for Christmas last year and read in its entirety the night I got it is in my bookshelf.

I think this is the first time I’ve felt a real personal loss due to the death of a non-family member. As everyone’s been describing on social media, it feels surreal. Like it has physically affected them, which I can empathize with. Everyone has a different reason for feeling this way, and mine is crystal clear, because it’s the way I’ve felt about Kobe every day I’ve lived my life since I can remember as a small boy. I imagine people who are religious may feel this way, or others that have idols that are so ingrained in who they are as well. But imagine looking at a person, or a being, and trying to embody them in every facet of the way you live your life. This has nothing to do with basketball—my basketball career ended when I didn’t make the high school freshman team. I feel a personal drive, like a pilot light that never goes out in my inner being that drives me to be the best I can be in every way possible. In my experience, not everybody has that true inner drive that inspires them. Because I don’t think it’s something that can be created internally by the individual person – it comes from your experience with the world and how you are affected and impacted by it.

I can undoubtedly attribute a large portion of my work ethic to what Kobe stood for – success by outworking everyone else. I wasn’t ever the smartest person in the room, nor the biggest or tallest or most talented. But I always sought to be the hardest worker. In my early days of childhood, this manifested itself through actual time spent working. As I’ve grown up, and thought more carefully about what Kobe’s likeness and mantra meant to me in terms of working hard, it has now become a narrative of working efficiently, effectively, precisely, and carefully. It’s about controlling and mastering all of the necessary elements that go into working hard and delivering the best product you can – developing the right relationships, building teams to boost your shortcomings, asking questions to those that know more about something than you with genuine curiosity and a desire to learn. If you’re going to work, work, don’t half-ass it or be in two places at once. If you’re not in a mental or physical place to work, then use that time regenerate efficiently, to “work” in other ways. Go to the gym, spend time with friends, even just zone out. I’ve gotten to a point in my life where it feels like instead of planning the hours or even minutes that go by as to how to live to the fullest, its at the level of seconds. Truly having an understanding of how you want to live your life, and doing it this way is what I’ve learned from Kobe.

It’s also a day like today when I remember all of the explicit and implicit “shade” I would get for voicing how important Kobe was to me as a person and role model. I would shamelessly put Kobe as my role model on applications, essays for school, even my National Science Foundation personal statement for a grant I applied for at the beginning of graduate school. It wasn’t always the “safe” choice, but it was a genuine one. Kobe wasn’t a perfect human being, or the prototypical role model like Barack Obama or Martin Luther King or Mother Teresa. He was an athlete – that came across as superficial. He was accused of sexual assault, and was labeled as someone that didn’t have respect for women. He called a referee a gay slur. But guess what – we’re all people, and we all make mistakes. It’s about how we represent ourselves in light of those mistakes, how we aim and strive to be better. What better model for being a human than someone who has messed up, lived with the consequences, and then stared at them head on to become a better person? Kobe exemplified this in the best way possible. I’m not here to defend him – he’s done that with his actions and the way he’s embraced inspiring others. Go and do the research yourself if you don’t believe me.

I hope that everyone that wasn’t affected by Kobe as much as I was takes a moment to reflect on the outpouring of support and emotion felt by so many across the world. If you’re at all apart of the sports community, you have certainly witnessed it. But I encourage those in the community at large to think about what a role model means. Who kids idolize and why. Who adults look up to (yes, adults need role models too). And why it matters so much that we understand the importance of a role model, and hope for everyone to be able to experience that type of connection with someone or something.

I know I’m still in a state of shock, and probably will be for some time to come. It’s crazy in that talking to others about it, it seems like many underestimated how much he impacted them, surprised at how hard this news was to take, which is something I haven’t witnessed with those close to me before. I’ve been glued to television and social media because each reflection and story has helped me understand Kobe the person that much more, like putting together an infinitely complex puzzle I started as a kid. I will always honor Kobe, because he is now apart of who I am and who I will become. He taught me to dream big, and to strive towards my goals without hesitation or doubt. To do it carefully and methodically, working hard at it and trusting the process along the way. I will miss knowing he’s out there somewhere, working hard, inspiring others to be the best they can be. I will miss seeing his full transition to full-time father/husband/caregiver/basketball coach/writer he began after he retired from professional basketball. It still felt like I had more to learn from him, and that his relationship as my role model had more to give. His image, likeness, heart and drive will live on with the so many he affected. Rest in peace, Kobe. I’ll miss you, and thank you for what you’ve done and will continue to do for my life.

Tags Kobe, Tribute

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2020 NBA All-Star Roster Predictions

Post author By Vijay Shravah
Post date January 20, 2020

Monday January 20th at 11:59p EST is the deadline for fans, players, and the media to put in their votes for their All-Star starters. In the spirit of this, we are making our predictions for the pool of starters and reserves for the 2020 NBA All-Star game in Chicago this February.

These selections assume that the latest release of All-Star votes from fans are relatively set, and also factor in the biases from players and coaches that inevitably go into their choices. Where possible, though, our Player Index is a great indicator of who we can expect to don an All-Star uniform in February. Or at least, it should be; what other metric better captures the desired balance between popularity and on-court performance?!

Now before we get into our selections, it’s worth pointing out some of the quirks and constraints that went into this. Despite the NBA making sweeping changes to the All-Star selection process – such as having the leading vote-getter from each conference (most likely to be LeBron and Giannis – the same captains for the 2019 game) serve as the team captains and “draft” their reserve teams – the selection process itself has a few issues that will impact the way voting will unfold:

Jimmy Butler Miami — Miami’s Jimmy Butler may lose a starting All-Star roster spot due to his position label (Photo Credit: Andy Lyons, Getty Images)

Despite efforts to make positions more flexible, the ambiguity between the “frontcourt” and “backcourt” labels makes it difficult to assign a position to some of the versatile wing players who waver between the two. Jimmy Butler, for instance, could be snubbed out of a starting spot because he was labeled as a frontcourt player. Now, he should be a starting guard since Miami has the second best record in the East under his leadership and he has very consistently played the two-guard position with the Heat all year. With Kemba Walker likely to garner votes from the media and players to earn a starting backcourt position, he is likely going to be paired with either Atlanta’s Trae Young, Brooklyn’s Kyrie Irving or Philadelphia’s Ben Simmons rather than the deserving Jimmy Buckets.
Injuries: Make no mistake: the NBA has been devastated by long-term injuries to some of its greatest superstars. The game won’t be the same without its usual perennial stars such as the former Warriors superstar trio of Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, and Klay Thompson or other soon-to-be perennial stars such as Victor Oladipo. There are also a handful of great players who missed too many games to be considered viable candidates – such as Kyrie Irving, Karl-Anthony Towns and Blake Griffin. To make it simple, we’ve eliminated anyone who’s missed more than 20 games.

Golden State Warriors v Los Angeles Lakers — Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, and Klay Thompson are three of many megastars missing this year’s All-Star game. (Photo Credit: SLAM Online)

Let’s get into our picks:

Eastern Conference

Starters:

Backcourt: Kemba Walker + Ben Simmons

Frontcourt: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Pascal Siakam, Joel Embiid

Backcourt Starters Analysis: Although fan votes currently have Kyrie Irving and Trae Young in the starting spots, we are predicting these will be offset by the media and players’ votes. In addition to his shoulder injury causing him to miss 26 of 41 games, Kyrie’s questionable leadership over the last few years and recent comments may have people scratching their heads. Young, on the other hand, has skyrocketed in popularity (ranked 15th overall on our Fansure Index) and has made tremendous strides in his game. However, he may be penalized by his team’s performance as the Hawks are vying for the league’s worst record at 10-34 (the Knicks are 1 game ahead, for context). Also, the media and players tend to be biased toward players who have more years under their belt.

Kemba Walker has the led the Celtics to very respectable 27-14 record in the East, and seems to be highly respected by the media as evidenced by his All-NBA selection last year (over Klay Thompson, who wasn’t too happy about it and was given a slightly less lucrative contract extension as a result). Ben Simmons, despite the heavy scrutiny at his apparent unwillingness to shoot outside jumpers and his team’s underachieving so far, has done just enough to establish the 76ers as contenders in the East – particularly with Joel Embiid missing 13 of 44 games. You can also bet that LeBron, one of the likely captains, will want to pick his buddy Simmons (who he traded for in last year’s draft) when he makes his selections on Thursday, February 6th.

Again, one can’t help but notice that Jimmy Butler should be starting at one of these positions with Miami exceeding everyone’s expectations holding the #2 spot in the East. Maybe they’ll correct his position label next year.

Frontcourt Starters Analysis: No explanation necessary for Giannis, who is making a strong case to defend his title as the NBA’s regular season MVP. Siakam and Embiid, who are Top 10 overall in All-Star voting, are likely to get the nod from media and players as well.

East Reserves:

Guards: Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry

Forwards/Center: Jayson Tatum, Khris Middleton, Nikola Vucevic

Wildcards: Domantas Sabonis, Trae Young

East Reserves Analysis: Coaches, who still have exclusive voting rights to the reserves, generally have two criteria for selecting reserves: 1) your team is winning and 2) you’ve “paid your dues” (i.e. been snubbed in the past enough times). In the East, however, there are slim pickings – making it a bit easier for coaches to go just off the best teams and make sure they are represented by at least one player.

With Butler as an obvious choice, and only 5 teams seen as serious East title contenders, we are predicting that coaches will select a 2nd player to go with each contender. That gives us Lowry (Toronto) to pair with starting Siakam, Middleton to pair with Giannis, and Tatum with Kemba. Some strongly suspect that Bam Adebayo will be seen as a strong candidate to pair with Jimmy Butler, and his numbers back it up (16/10/5), but we’re not entirely sure he will be picked ahead of the other front court prospects. Tobias Harris is a great choice as well, but assuming fellow Sixers Simmons and Embiid are selected, we are predicting that coaches won’t reward Philly’s so-so season with 3 All-Stars.

That leaves us Indiana, who needs someone to represent them as they have quietly overachieved without Oladipo – who is hopeful to make his return on Jan 29th from a gruesome knee injury suffered last season. We have Domantas Sabonis on the roster, but we can see Malcolm Brogdon getting the nod as well. Orlando is also comfortably in the Top 8, thanks to their consistent big man Nikola Vucevic – who will likely get selected for a second straight season.

So who gets the final spot? Brogdon, Trae Young, Bradley Beal, and Zach LaVine are all possible candidates. Our educated guess goes to Trae Young, who is putting up stellar numbers despite his team’s poor record. Young is also already 15th on our Player Index and is well ahead of everyone else under consideration.

Now on to the more difficult selections…

Western Conference

Starters:

Backcourt: Luka Doncic + James Harden

Frontcourt: LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, Anthony Davis

Starters Analysis: Overall, the fan vote matches our predictions for who makes the starting squad. One can argue that Nikola Jokic should get a frontcourt spot, but Denver has had some noticeably flat performances this season and it is hard to argue in favor of omitting one of the LA superstars.

West Reserves Analysis: It has been an annual tradition to snub 2-3 very deserving candidates in the West. Damian Lillard, LaMarcus Aldridge, CJ McCollum, Rudy Gobert and many others can tell you how hard it is to crack the top 12. Let’s start with the players who we think will *for sure* make it:

With Denver and Utah positioning themselves to secure home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, Donovan Mitchell and Nikola Jokic are locks to get voted in by the coaches. Mitchell, who will be a first-time All-Star, has certainly paid his dues in the eyes of coaches and has his Jazz team firing on all cylinders of late – winning 10 of their last 11 games.

dm_200119_thunder_chris_paul_default — Despite many predicting him to request a trade to play elsewhere, CP3 has the Thunder in comfortable playoff position (Photo Credit: ESPN)

The other success story that will almost certainly be rewarded in the form of an All-Star bid is the Oklahoma City Thunder’s surprisingly decent season. This almost guarantees Chris Paul will be selected, as his leadership has been well documented and is a worthy accomplishment that coaches will recognize. Shea Gilgeous-Alexander, who was the key trade chip in the trade that sent Paul George to the Clippers, has been a huge part of why the Thunder have played this well – but his time will come later.

This leaves us two frontcourt openings and two wildcards. With the West as loaded as it is, we’re looking at several potential candidates on winning teams: George, Gobert, Porzingis, and Russell Westbrook to name a few. Then there are the great players whose teams are having subpar seasons: Lillard, McCollum, Aldridge, DeMar DeRozan, Devin Booker, KAT, and Wiggins. Let’s also not forget rookie sensation Ja Morant, who has led the Grizzlies to the 8th seed in the West (!!) and created a level of excitement in Memphis that hasn’t been seen or hoped for since Jason Williams. So how do we narrow this down?

PG13, despite having missed 17 games, is likely going to be voted in by the coaches coming off his All-NBA season last year with the Thunder. He’s also perceived as a star carrying the load for the Clippers through the load managed season of his superstar teammate Kawhi. He remains a key reason why the Clippers are still managing to contend for a Top-2 seed in the West.

Everyone else is anyone’s guess. The remaining frontcourt spot will likely go to Gobert, who has publicly expressed disappointment in years past and might elicit a sympathy vote from coaches. So who gets the two remaining wildcard spots? It’s very hard to see a former MVP and triple-double machine Westbrook be on the outside looking in. Given Houston is still a winning team, and Russ still puts tremendous pressure on opposing defenses, it is unlikely for coaches to pass on him.

Lou Williams would give the Clippers a third All-Star, which would not be warranted from the coaches’ perspective unless the Clippers were running away with the league’s best record. The remaining spot, therefore, is bound to go to a player whose team has a losing record. San Antonio, Portland, Phoenix, and Minnesota all have All-Star caliber players, but only one can get selected. Our guess goes to Lillard, who is still in our Top 10 Fansure Player Index rankings and has been snubbed too many times in the past for coaches to do it again. Personally, I would vote for Ja Morant. But it’s a given that coaches generally don’t vote for rookies (even LeBron in 2004) unless they are otherworldly exceptional and their teams have winning records.

Here’s a summary view of our picks this year:

Tags 2020 NBA All-Star Game, NBA All-Star Game