Month: December 2020

As we approach opening night, nine of our team members put together their award predictions for the upcoming season. Here’s how the Fansure team sees everything playing out:

Part One:

Award	Marcellus Wiley	Tom Haberstroh	Vijay	Scott	Cole
MVP	Luka Dončić	Luka Dončić	Luka Dončić	Luka Dončić	Luka Dončić
ROY	LaMelo Ball	Deni Avdija	LaMelo Ball	LaMelo Ball	James Wiseman
DPOY	Anthony Davis	Ben Simmons	Giannis Antetokounmpo	Anthony Davis	Ben Simmons
6MOY	Lou Williams	Shake Milton	Spencer Dinwiddie	Caris LeVert	Dennis Schröder
Most Improved	Michael Porter Jr	Coby White	Christian Wood	Tyler Herro	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
COY	Monty Williams	Rick Carlisle	Rick Carlisle	Monty Williams	Doc Rivers
#1 East Seed	Brooklyn	Milwaukee	Milwaukee	Milwaukee	Milwaukee
#1 West Seed	LA Lakers	LA Clippers	Dallas	Denver	LA Lakers
East Champs	Brooklyn	Miami	Milwaukee	Milwaukee	Milwaukee
West Champs	LA Clippers	LA Lakers	LA Clippers	LA Lakers	LA Lakers
NBA Champs	LA Clippers	LA Lakers	LA Clippers	LA Lakers	LA Lakers
Finals MVP	Kawhi Leonard	Anthony Davis	Kawhi Leonard	Anthony Davis	LeBron James

Part Two:

Award	Jordan	Dan	Nikhil	Patrick
MVP	Luka Dončić	Luka Dončić	Luka Dončić	Luka Dončić
ROY	Obi Toppin	James Wiseman	LaMelo Ball	James Wiseman
DPOY	Bam Adebayo	Ben Simmons	Anthony Davis	Giannis Antetokounmpo
6MOY	Caris LeVert	Jordan Clarkson	Jordan Clarkson	Lou Williams
Most Improved	Coby White	Christian Wood	Christian Wood	Tyler Herro
COY	Brad Stevens	Monty Williams	Steve Nash	Erik Spoelstra
#1 East Seed	Milwaukee	Milwaukee	Milwaukee	Brooklyn
#1 West Seed	LA Lakers	LA Lakers	LA Lakers	LA Lakers
East Champs	Boston	Philadelphia	Milwaukee	Miami
West Champs	LA Lakers	LA Lakers	LA Lakers	LA Lakers
NBA Champs	LA Lakers	LA Lakers	LA Lakers	LA Lakers
Finals MVP	Anthony Davis	Anthony Davis	LeBron James	Anthony Davis

Analysis:

MVP: Despite this being the most contentiously debated title nearly every year, this is the only award that the team had a unanimous consensus on in terms of a prediction: Luka Dončić, who is a +400 to win the award, is our favorite to claim the Maurice Podoloff trophy. Dončić, a 21-year old Slovenian, is our pick to win his first MVP and would be the second-youngest player to ever win the title (Derrick Rose).

Rookie of the Year: This should arguably be the toughest award to debate, given the pandemic has robbed us of learning anything about this year’s rookie class and has given us almost no data to inform our predictions. Most of the team, though, is split between James Wiseman and LaMelo Ball – the second and third picks in the 2020 NBA draft, respectively.

One-offs include Washington’s Devin Avdija and New York’s Obi Toppin. Avdija, Tom Haberstroh’s pick, is rumored to have been high on the Warriors’ ladder before they ended up going with Wiseman.

Defensive Player of the Year: Another category that our team was split on: AD is the slight favorite getting 3 votes, with Giannis and Ben Simmons tied for second place with 2 each.

Understandably, no one on the team picked two-time winners Kawhi Leonard (2015 & 2016) and Rudy Gobert (2018 & 2019) as only three players in NBA history have ever won the award more than twice (Ben Wallace and Dikembe Mutombo have each won 4, and Dwight Howard is the only player to have won three straight). Giannis, the 2020 recipient, is going to try to be the only player in NBA history to win MVP for the third straight year and win back-to-back DPOY titles.

Sixth Man of the Year: Relatively even split again here; Clarkson, LeVert, and Lou Williams (3-time winner) garnered two votes each. Lou is currently tied with Jamal Crawford for the most 6th man titles, and is poised to break that tie and become the only player to ever win 4.

Most Improved: This is one of the near-impossible awards to predict – especially with a very quick offseason for most players. Still, we saw a couple of players with multiple votes: Christian Wood (3) and Tyler Herro (2). In the bubble, Herro showed the world on the biggest stage how much he has already improved, leading some to wonder if he will be ‘penalized’ if he picks up where he left off after the NBA Finals. Michael Porter Jr. (Marcellus Wiley’s pick) could suffer that same ‘penalty’ with his play elevating Denver to an improbable conference finals appearance.

Coach of the Year: As the undefeated team (8-0) in the bubble, the Suns are positioned to make a big playoff push after adding CP3. This could be why Monty Williams is the slight majority winner in our panel with three votes. Unlike the other individual categories, this award seemed to have the most variability among our team with Carlisle being the only other coach to get multiple votes. 5 of the 9 votes were unique (Erik Spoelstra, Doc Rivers, Brad Stevens, and Steve Nash). 46% of NBA GMs consider Spoelstra to be the best coach today – making it seem odd that he hasn’t won the award yet.

Playoff Predictions:

Unsurprisingly, the Lakers are the Fansure team’s favorite to win both the West and the Finals, getting 75% of our votes. This is consistent with betting activity, with heavy money being put on the defending champs to repeat. The remaining two of our team members picked the “other” LA team to win – with Marcellus “Mr. Clippers” Wiley predictably being one of them. Of the six team members who are predicting a Laker title, four have picked LeBron’s running mate to win the Finals MVP honor. Could this be the year LeBron takes a back seat to his co-star?

Ultimately, the team unanimously foresees the Larry O’Brien trophy staying put at Staples.

Although the Lakers are favorites, not everyone has them pegged as the #1 seed; Dallas and Denver each received one vote for that title. This is likely not a knock on the Lakers, but rather the notion that LeBron and AD, whose team has had only a 72-day offseason, will commence significantly more load management during the regular season.

The East predictions show a little more variability; while most have Milwaukee again securing the #1 seed, the Nets, Celtics, and 76ers each received votes by our team to represent the East in the NBA Finals.