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Remembering Kobe

“If you really want to be great at something, you have to truly care about it. You have to obsess over it.” 

-Kobe Bryant

This has been a really tough time for me and so many others. Before I share some words, I just want to say that I am heartbroken for Vanessa and Kobe’s three daughters & Gigi’s three sisters: Natalia, Bianka, and Capri. I cannot comprehend the pain, sadness, and grief they and the rest of the Bryant family are feeling, but I and so many others are thinking about them in such an awful time. I also want to remember the other victims and their families — the Altobelli’s, Chesters, Mausers, and Zobayans. It doesn’t matter how rich you are, your race or gender—tragedy can affect anyone and the pain you feel isn’t any easier to take.

Kobe was my idol. Plain and simple. To be honest, no one even came close. My room has always been decorated with Kobe memorabilia. I think the number of hours I’ve spent watching Kobe highlights exceeds the weeks (plural) threshold. And those that know me know that’s not an exaggeration. I have the 8, 24, and 33 jerseys. In my room right now I can count 4 pictures attributed to Kobe. Above my door hangs the “heroes come and go, but legends are forever” saying that defined Kobe. My phone background is from his 81-point game. The rookie card one of my best friends in high school (Alex) gave me sits in the nightstand next to my bed. The “Mamba Mentality” book Kobe recently published that I received for Christmas last year and read in its entirety the night I got it is in my bookshelf.

I think this is the first time I’ve felt a real personal loss due to the death of a non-family member. As everyone’s been describing on social media, it feels surreal. Like it has physically affected them, which I can empathize with. Everyone has a different reason for feeling this way, and mine is crystal clear, because it’s the way I’ve felt about Kobe every day I’ve lived my life since I can remember as a small boy. I imagine people who are religious may feel this way, or others that have idols that are so ingrained in who they are as well. But imagine looking at a person, or a being, and trying to embody them in every facet of the way you live your life. This has nothing to do with basketball—my basketball career ended when I didn’t make the high school freshman team. I feel a personal drive, like a pilot light that never goes out in my inner being that drives me to be the best I can be in every way possible. In my experience, not everybody has that true inner drive that inspires them. Because I don’t think it’s something that can be created internally by the individual person – it comes from your experience with the world and how you are affected and impacted by it.

I can undoubtedly attribute a large portion of my work ethic to what Kobe stood for – success by outworking everyone else. I wasn’t ever the smartest person in the room, nor the biggest or tallest or most talented. But I always sought to be the hardest worker. In my early days of childhood, this manifested itself through actual time spent working. As I’ve grown up, and thought more carefully about what Kobe’s likeness and mantra meant to me in terms of working hard, it has now become a narrative of working efficiently, effectively, precisely, and carefully. It’s about controlling and mastering all of the necessary elements that go into working hard and delivering the best product you can – developing the right relationships, building teams to boost your shortcomings, asking questions to those that know more about something than you with genuine curiosity and a desire to learn. If you’re going to work, work, don’t half-ass it or be in two places at once. If you’re not in a mental or physical place to work, then use that time regenerate efficiently, to “work” in other ways. Go to the gym, spend time with friends, even just zone out. I’ve gotten to a point in my life where it feels like instead of planning the hours or even minutes that go by as to how to live to the fullest, its at the level of seconds. Truly having an understanding of how you want to live your life, and doing it this way is what I’ve learned from Kobe.

It’s also a day like today when I remember all of the explicit and implicit “shade” I would get for voicing how important Kobe was to me as a person and role model. I would shamelessly put Kobe as my role model on applications, essays for school, even my National Science Foundation personal statement for a grant I applied for at the beginning of graduate school. It wasn’t always the “safe” choice, but it was a genuine one. Kobe wasn’t a perfect human being, or the prototypical role model like Barack Obama or Martin Luther King or Mother Teresa. He was an athlete – that came across as superficial. He was accused of sexual assault, and was labeled as someone that didn’t have respect for women. He called a referee a gay slur. But guess what – we’re all people, and we all make mistakes. It’s about how we represent ourselves in light of those mistakes, how we aim and strive to be better. What better model for being a human than someone who has messed up, lived with the consequences, and then stared at them head on to become a better person? Kobe exemplified this in the best way possible. I’m not here to defend him – he’s done that with his actions and the way he’s embraced inspiring others. Go and do the research yourself if you don’t believe me.

I hope that everyone that wasn’t affected by Kobe as much as I was takes a moment to reflect on the outpouring of support and emotion felt by so many across the world. If you’re at all apart of the sports community, you have certainly witnessed it. But I encourage those in the community at large to think about what a role model means. Who kids idolize and why. Who adults look up to (yes, adults need role models too). And why it matters so much that we understand the importance of a role model, and hope for everyone to be able to experience that type of connection with someone or something.

I know I’m still in a state of shock, and probably will be for some time to come. It’s crazy in that talking to others about it, it seems like many underestimated how much he impacted them, surprised at how hard this news was to take, which is something I haven’t witnessed with those close to me before. I’ve been glued to television and social media because each reflection and story has helped me understand Kobe the person that much more, like putting together an infinitely complex puzzle I started as a kid. I will always honor Kobe, because he is now apart of who I am and who I will become. He taught me to dream big, and to strive towards my goals without hesitation or doubt. To do it carefully and methodically, working hard at it and trusting the process along the way. I will miss knowing he’s out there somewhere, working hard, inspiring others to be the best they can be. I will miss seeing his full transition to full-time father/husband/caregiver/basketball coach/writer he began after he retired from professional basketball. It still felt like I had more to learn from him, and that his relationship as my role model had more to give. His image, likeness, heart and drive will live on with the so many he affected. Rest in peace, Kobe. I’ll miss you, and thank you for what you’ve done and will continue to do for my life.

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Understanding the Economics of the NBA Regular Season

Why the NBA Regular Season does matter  

NBA media and other folks have been touting the regular season as much too long and relatively dull. They say the stakes for an individual game are simply too low.  

There are several factors that play a part in this viewpoint. First, there are 82 games spanning the course of 7 months, the longest of all major U.S. professional sports. Because of its length, the NBA competes with College Football bowl games, the NFL regular season, the NFL playoffs, and even NCAA March Madness.  

“Load Management” has also taken hold, suggesting that the value of winning an individual game can sometimes be so low that players are better off “preserving themselves” for a potential playoff run, and thus sit out of some of these games (often times during back-to-back scenarios).  

When turning to the quantitative metrics, the case that the regular season is too long only becomes stronger. FiveThirtyEight uses a metric to understand how much information each game in the regular season carries, determining the point in the regular season where a team’s record represents 50% luck and 50% skill. There are some striking discrepancies across major U.S. professional sports – in the NFL it takes 11 games, the MLB 67 games, and the NBA a strikingly low 12 games. 

Taking this argument a step further, you would only need a 17.5 game regular season in the NBA to provide as much information about each team as the 16 game NFL regular season. Nobody is advocating for that short an NBA regular season, but the point rings true – it’s clear that from a competitiveness standpoint, the NBA regular season appears to be way too long. So what justifies its length?

The primary allure and unique feature of sports is the competitiveness aspect, namely uncertainty in the outcome of a matchup and designed parity across a league. For instance, a study analyzing Monday Night Football games found that TV ratings are primarily determined by a quality match-up between winning teams, a high level of uncertainty of outcome, and high-scoring (Paul and Weinbach 2007). The same finding is true in College Football BCS games, where ratings increase systematically throughout a contest when the outcome of that contest becomes more uncertain (Salaga and Tainsky 2013).

Yet, one of the important distinctions between the NBA and most other professional leagues (potentially excluding European soccer) is the starpower of the players, and how their popularity drives viewership independent of the competitiveness or of the quality of the two teams in a game. In fact, my independent research finds that the competitiveness of a single matchup (as measured by the point spread) isn’t a significant predictor of ticket prices or TV ratings in regular season NBA games.

While this isn’t a one-to-one comparison with the broader metric of how good each team is (as measured by their W-L record or playoff probability), which our research shows to be a strong influencer in ticket prices (and less so in ratings), it is an indicator that there are other important factors driving demand for the NBA regular season product.

On the other hand, popularity of players in a matchup is a huge driver of ticket prices and ratings. In fact, it can be even more important than the combined quality of the two teams playing! Have you ever gone to a game and seen Michael Jordan or Kobe Bryant in person? How about LeBron James or Steph Curry? These are the most talented, most skilled, most explosive athletes this planet has ever seen, and their presence alone is worth the price of admission. There is a “superstar” effect that transcends the competitiveness of a game, how good the two teams playing are, and the market size of each team, among other factors, which makes the NBA a uniquely different product than hockey, baseball, and even football. 

The set of “hockey stick” graphs below reinforce this point. In economics, the nature of a superstar is represented by huge increases in value as you move towards the most talented individuals in an industry (shown in seminal research by one of the most well-known economists in history, Sherwin Rosen).  

HockeyStickGraphs

Figure 1. Ticket Price and TV Ratings Impacts for All NBA Players (Ranked by # of Fan All-Star Votes) 

As you can see here, once you start to move into the top 10-15 players from a popularity standpoint (as measured by their All-Star fan votes over the 2017-18 and 2018-19 NBA seasons), the increases in ticket prices and TV ratings become sizable and significant. For instance, in games LeBron James plays in, the average ticket price increase compared to a typical game is on the order of 20-25%. We see similar effects with some of the other most popular players, including Luka Doncic and Stephen Curry.  

The fact that there are 82 chances in a regular season (and 41 at home) to see these athletes perform, regardless of the other conditions surrounding the game, should be accounted for when we make arguments about the regular season. It’s also evident that the “number of chances” to see the most popular players matters – while the average impact on ticket prices when LeBron or Steph don’t play is between $30-42 per ticket, when they miss away games the price impact ranges from $55-75 per ticket (Kaplan et al. 2019).

Now, the new age of load management has thrown a sizable wrench into this construct. There is a case to be made that the regular season is indeed too long if the top stars are going to take nights off (or choose not to play with minor injuries that players used to play through), which is a shared sentiment among some writers. Under these conditions, the product no longer has the appeal it’s designed to produce, and fans paying hard-earned money or advertisers expecting a certain number of viewing households are now experiencing reduced value.

These factors may suggest benefits of a slightly shorter regular season (which the NBA has already suggested) to avoid back-to-backs and space out games a bit. This way, expectations about the quality of the product can be better met for the several important stakeholders involved.

The most important takeaway is this: fans pay for the game-day experience. Who could possibly get tired of watching LeBron James or Stephen Curry play, no matter how good the other team, no matter how competitive the game, and no matter how the game may or may not impact playoff probability? More than any other professional sport, this is what makes the NBA different. The players are on center-stage, their athleticism on full display. More specifically, there are only 5 players on the court at a time, and each is perfectly visible (unlike football or hockey).

The narrative needs to be changed, and all of the factors considered. The regular season does matter to a whole lot of people that can’t afford to go to playoff games, or only get a chance to go to one or two games a year (and even that comes with a very high cost). The more chances we have to do that, the more reasonable are ticket prices and the more accessible the stars.

A longer regular season also makes sense for the stars themselves! Player salaries hinge on these revenues, and a much shorter schedule is going to have significant financial impacts. Relatedly, a significantly shorter schedule would reduce the window in which players receive national attention. With the current setup, players get to brand themselves for 9-10 months out of the year, something that doesn’t happen in other professional sports.

If you’re feeling interested in a deeper dive into the economics of superstar players in the NBA, check out our independent academic working paper that was featured at the 2019 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. Steph and LeBron fans will understand.