Now that the NBA’s regular season is wrapping up and we’re on the brink of the inaugural play-in tournament, it’s time to start predictions: who’s most likely to be crowned the first post-Bubble and (hopefully) last COVID-era champs?
These playoffs should be wildly unique and unpredictable, to say the least: even the best teams that were most favored to win prior to the start of the 2020-21 season have all battled issues related to COVID, injuries, and fan-less arenas.
Without further ado, here are the reversed 2021 title odds rankings for all 20 teams, including those expected to be in the play-in tournament:
20. Charlotte Hornets (VegasInsider Rank: T-18, +25000)
Though the Hornets haven’t had an awful season, they seem to be limping down the stretch. Gordon Hayward is doubtful for the play-in tournament. LaMelo Ball, the heavy ROY favorite (-2500, per VegasInsider), has struggled with consistency – shooting 40% in his first 7 games returning from a wrist injury, which was originally presumed to be season-ending. Expecting a 19-year old to lead them past the play-in seems ambitious. Positioning in the play-in seems irrelevant as they seem to be a notch below the other 3 presumed play-in teams (Boston, Indiana, and Washington).
Still, this team has reason to be excited with some bright young stars and a franchise player to build around (once he fully recovers).
19. San Antonio Spurs (VegasInsider Rank: T-18, +25000)
Losing 7 of their last 10, it feels like this team is on the verge of a long overdue rebuild. Greg Popovich and the Spurs will likely lose the first play-in game and miss the playoffs for the second straight season – after qualifying for 22 (!!) consecutive years. They’ll likely enter the play-in as the 10th seed and play either the Grizzlies or Warriors – both led by point guards who alone have orders of magnitude more firepower that the entire Spurs team has. It would be a huge shock if they can even win that first play-in game.
18. Indiana Pacers (VegasInsider Rank: 21, +50000)
17. Boston Celtics (VegasInsider Rank: T-12, +6600)
To quote Tom Haberstroh, this is a lost season for the Celtics. COVID protocols and injuries have gotten the best of them. In fact, according to Fansure’s analytics, they lead the league – by far – in player days missed due to COVID protocols:
16. Washington Wizards (VegasInsider Rank: T-16, +20000)
15. Memphis Grizzlies (VegasInsider Rank: T-16, +20000)
14. Atlanta Hawks (VegasInsider Rank: T-10, +5000)
13. New York Knicks (VegasInsider Rank: 14, +8000)
Tom Thibodeau and Derrick Rose still think it’s 2011. At least, that’s the only reason I can think of as to why the Knicks are – dare I say – relevant.
Julius Randle is going to get All-NBA consideration, and rightfully so. Even if they get ousted in the first round, the fact that they’re on anyone’s radar seems immensely satisfying for this long-suffering franchise – even if they’re about to witness their lesser known rivals make a deep run.
12. LA Lakers (VegasInsider Rank: T-2, +500)
No, this isn’t a typo. It feels strange to rank them this low, but hear me out:
- LeBron /AD/Schröder injuries
- Drummond/AD spacing and chemistry issues
- Supporting cast is much, much worse than last year
- 70-day off-season that they never quite recovered from
Does this look insurmountable to defend their 2020 crown? It does to me. It appears they’ve come to terms that they will need to rest everyone for the play-in. As Amin Elhassan said on the Habershow podcast, LeBron could in theory sit out the first play-in game since it doesn’t really matter whether they’re the 7th or 8th seed. I’m not quite ready to say they’ll lose the play-in games, but for them to fight for their playoff lives and hope that they can overcome their injury and continuity issues for a championship run seems far fetched to say the least.
Most importantly, the Lakers will get a pass here if they fall short in the eyes of fans and the media alike, thus giving them the out and positioning themselves to recover for next season.
11. Golden State Warriors (VegasInsider Rank: 15, +15000)
Why does this feel like We Believe 2.0? Because Steph Curry is having a historically great season and will win the scoring title? Because Draymond has somehow anchored this defense to be Top 5 (!!) in the league? Because their supporting cast has somehow suddenly gained confidence in the last six weeks?
Probably all of the above. Chef Curry’s insane hot streak and the team’s sudden cohesion seems too good to be true. And it probably is. Make no mistake: the Dubs are still woefully underequipped and inexperienced for any kind of playoff run. While Andrew Wiggins has shown flashes of offensive and defensive brilliance in spurts, history tells us he won’t be a dependable 2nd offensive option. I can see this team making some noise during the play-in games, but ultimately the lights will be too bright for the admirable-but-subpar supporting cast.
But because Steph and Draymond have never been better, I’m giving them a puncher’s chance to get out of the first round and be well-positioned to “upset” the Lakers in the first play-in game.
10. Portland Trail Blazers (VegasInsider Rank: T-12, +6600)
9. Dallas Mavericks (VegasInsider Rank: T-10, +5000)
The Blazers and Mavs both check a lot of boxes here:
- Transcendent franchise player? Check
- Reliable 2nd star? Check
- Experienced bench + depth? Check
And yet, these teams still feel far away from making any kind of serious playoff push. Porzingis can’t seem to stay healthy in crucial moments (e.g. 2020 vs. a Clipper team that was ripe for an upset), and the team overall has struggled to find consistency all year.
Similarly, Portland seems to be a dark horse pick every year but can’t seem to get past teams ahead of them. They struggle mightily on defense – the NBA’s 2nd worst in defensive rating. That won’t get it done and is a recipe for a first round exit.
8. Phoenix Suns (VegasInsider Rank: 7, +1400)
7. Denver Nuggets (VegasInsider Rank: 8, +2500)
6. Utah Jazz (VegasInsider Rank: 4, +700)
I need to address all the Mountain West teams at once; while Denver is unfortunately shorthanded without Jamal Murray, they have won 11 of their last 15 games and Michael Porter Jr has embraced the co-star role with presumed MVP Nikola Jokic. Aaron Gordon has been a seamless addition, and they seem to be the Clippers’ kryptonite. I can see them giving everyone but the Nets trouble en route to a title. Still, it’s hard to see this team getting out of the West without Murray’s firepower.
That leaves us with the West’s #1 and 2 seeds, which have never felt weaker compared to years past. Utah has been without its All-Star backcourt of Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley Jr for some time. Can they hit the on-switch when it matters most? Sure, they can probably take down whoever ends up as the 8th seed, but they don’t seem equipped to make it out of the West.
Phoenix is even more of a wild card. How will Devin Booker perform in his playoff debut? How about DeAndre Ayton? Can 36-year old Chris Paul lead this team if they were to face, say, the Lakers in Round 1 (if healthy)? Sure Paul has been fantastic – particularly in the clutch – but we’ve seen this before from him during the regular season. Overall, inexperience kills in a grueling 7-game series, and that will come back to bite them eventually.
Can a #1 and 2 seed be upset in the first round? Don’t be surprised to see this happen for the first time.
5. Milwaukee Bucks (VegasInsider Rank: 6, +900)
Although they didn’t dominate the regular season as they did the last two years, this team feels better than before with their retooled roster. Jrue Holiday is a huge upgrade over Eric Bledsoe. Khris Middleton has had a sneaky good season. PJ Tucker should help them with the intangibles.
And yet, both Vegas and I don’t see the Bucks as serious threats. Mike Budenholzer has had his struggles adjusting in playoff situations before, and I don’t see them getting past the 2nd round. They’ll likely face off against Brooklyn, whom they beat twice recently in a back-to-back set, but barely (by 3 and 6 points) and didn’t have to deal with James Harden.
4. Philadelphia 76ers (VegasInsider Rank: 5, +800)
Daryl Morey and Doc Rivers have shown why they will always have jobs, no matter how much they are scapegoated in their previous respective stints with the Rockets and Clippers. They have retooled Philly’s roster to become a defensive powerhouse, and appear to have the two-headed monster of Embiid and Simmons playing well together – despite many people being convinced that the two can’t co-exist.
That being said, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them being ousted in the 2nd round to their likely opponent, our #3 ranked team:
3. Miami Heat (VegasInsider Rank: 9, +3500)
We’ve seen this movie before: a team that seemingly has struggles during the regular season, doesn’t even get homecourt advantage in the first round, and just romps through the conference. Combine the fact that their mediocre record can be attributed to being the 4th-most affected team by COVID, and they appear to be just as formidable as last year heading into the postseason.
Not so coincidentally, the Heat have been playing extremely well of late and clearly won’t be afraid of anyone seeded ahead of them. Jimmy Butler has taught us not to underestimate his team before.
Here we go again this year: the Heat have won 6 of their last 7 – and btw, Jimmy missed that one loss.
2. Brooklyn Nets (VegasInsider Rank: 1, +230)
Despite having played 7 games together, the Big 3 of KD, Harden, and Kyrie are perceived as impossibly difficult to defeat in a playoff series. And rightfully so; despite missing literally months of action, both KD and Harden seem to always hit the ground running.
- KD after missing 27 games: 17p, 7r, 5a, +22 in 18 minutes
- Harden after missing 20 of 21 games: 18p, 11a, 7r in 25 minutes
Do these guys even need to play together before the playoffs? Does rhythm and chemistry building even matter for them? It doesn’t look that way, and their 1st round matchup against one of the play-in teams should suffice as a warm-up period.
1.LA Clippers (VegasInsider Rank: T-2, +500)
Despite how great they’ve looked during stretches of the season and the veteran leadership they acquired this year, this team somehow feels slept on. Paul George might have some classic ‘Pandemic P’ performances, but the team has surrounded itself with enough talent to offset any off-nights that he might have. Given that the West looks somewhat weaker than before, the Clippers’ strengths will overcome their flaws – unless they face Denver again.
Also, despite their load managing practices and on-and-off availability of their top players, check out where they rank as a team this season:
- 3P% – 1st
- 3PM – 3rd (behind Utah and Portland)
- Net Rating – 2nd (behind Utah)
- FT% – 1st
For a team that was coasting, that’s pretty good.
I expect them to win the West with relative ease and face off against Brooklyn in what should be an epic Finals showdown. I give an ever-so-slight edge to the Clippers only because I’m not sure how KD will hold up over the course of an entire playoff run with his hamstring and Achilles issues. That, and the Nets winning would make a complete mockery out of the regular season.
In either case, the real winner: load management.