Author: Vijay Shravah

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2021 Championship Odds: Ranked

Now that the NBA’s regular season is wrapping up and we’re on the brink of the inaugural play-in tournament, it’s time to start predictions: who’s most likely to be crowned the first post-Bubble and (hopefully) last COVID-era champs?

These playoffs should be wildly unique and unpredictable, to say the least: even the best teams that were most favored to win prior to the start of the 2020-21 season have all battled issues related to COVID, injuries, and fan-less arenas.

Without further ado, here are the reversed 2021 title odds rankings for all 20 teams, including those expected to be in the play-in tournament:

20. Charlotte Hornets (VegasInsider Rank: T-18, +25000)

Though the Hornets haven’t had an awful season, they seem to be limping down the stretch. Gordon Hayward is doubtful for the play-in tournament. LaMelo Ball, the heavy ROY favorite (-2500, per VegasInsider), has struggled with consistency – shooting 40% in his first 7 games returning from a wrist injury, which was originally presumed to be season-ending. Expecting a 19-year old to lead them past the play-in seems ambitious. Positioning in the play-in seems irrelevant as they seem to be a notch below the other 3 presumed play-in teams (Boston, Indiana, and Washington).

Still, this team has reason to be excited with some bright young stars and a franchise player to build around (once he fully recovers).

19. San Antonio Spurs (VegasInsider Rank: T-18, +25000)

Losing 7 of their last 10, it feels like this team is on the verge of a long overdue rebuild. Greg Popovich and the Spurs will likely lose the first play-in game and miss the playoffs for the second straight season – after qualifying for 22 (!!) consecutive years. They’ll likely enter the play-in as the 10th seed and play either the Grizzlies or Warriors – both led by point guards who alone have orders of magnitude more firepower that the entire Spurs team has. It would be a huge shock if they can even win that first play-in game.

18. Indiana Pacers (VegasInsider Rank: 21, +50000)

17. Boston Celtics (VegasInsider Rank: T-12, +6600)

To quote Tom Haberstroh, this is a lost season for the Celtics. COVID protocols and injuries have gotten the best of them. In fact, according to Fansure’s analytics, they lead the league – by far – in player days missed due to COVID protocols:

Full dashboard here: https://fansure.com/user/fansureFeed/detail/608

16. Washington Wizards (VegasInsider Rank: T-16, +20000)

15. Memphis Grizzlies (VegasInsider Rank: T-16, +20000)

14. Atlanta Hawks (VegasInsider Rank: T-10, +5000)

13. New York Knicks (VegasInsider Rank: 14, +8000)

Tom Thibodeau and Derrick Rose still think it’s 2011. At least, that’s the only reason I can think of as to why the Knicks are – dare I say – relevant.

Julius Randle is going to get All-NBA consideration, and rightfully so. Even if they get ousted in the first round, the fact that they’re on anyone’s radar seems immensely satisfying for this long-suffering franchise – even if they’re about to witness their lesser known rivals make a deep run.

12. LA Lakers (VegasInsider Rank: T-2, +500)

No, this isn’t a typo. It feels strange to rank them this low, but hear me out:

  • LeBron /AD/Schröder injuries
  • Drummond/AD spacing and chemistry issues
  • Supporting cast is much, much worse than last year
  • 70-day off-season that they never quite recovered from

Does this look insurmountable to defend their 2020 crown? It does to me. It appears they’ve come to terms that they will need to rest everyone for the play-in. As Amin Elhassan said on the Habershow podcast, LeBron could in theory sit out the first play-in game since it doesn’t really matter whether they’re the 7th or 8th seed. I’m not quite ready to say they’ll lose the play-in games, but for them to fight for their playoff lives and hope that they can overcome their injury and continuity issues for a championship run seems far fetched to say the least.

Most importantly, the Lakers will get a pass here if they fall short in the eyes of fans and the media alike, thus giving them the out and positioning themselves to recover for next season.

11. Golden State Warriors (VegasInsider Rank: 15, +15000)

Why does this feel like We Believe 2.0? Because Steph Curry is having a historically great season and will win the scoring title? Because Draymond has somehow anchored this defense to be Top 5 (!!) in the league? Because their supporting cast has somehow suddenly gained confidence in the last six weeks?

Probably all of the above. Chef Curry’s insane hot streak and the team’s sudden cohesion seems too good to be true. And it probably is. Make no mistake: the Dubs are still woefully underequipped and inexperienced for any kind of playoff run. While Andrew Wiggins has shown flashes of offensive and defensive brilliance in spurts, history tells us he won’t be a dependable 2nd offensive option. I can see this team making some noise during the play-in games, but ultimately the lights will be too bright for the admirable-but-subpar supporting cast.

But because Steph and Draymond have never been better, I’m giving them a puncher’s chance to get out of the first round and be well-positioned to “upset” the Lakers in the first play-in game.

10. Portland Trail Blazers (VegasInsider Rank: T-12, +6600)

9. Dallas Mavericks (VegasInsider Rank: T-10, +5000)

The Blazers and Mavs both check a lot of boxes here:

  • Transcendent franchise player? Check
  • Reliable 2nd star? Check
  • Experienced bench + depth? Check

And yet, these teams still feel far away from making any kind of serious playoff push. Porzingis can’t seem to stay healthy in crucial moments (e.g. 2020 vs. a Clipper team that was ripe for an upset), and the team overall has struggled to find consistency all year.

Similarly, Portland seems to be a dark horse pick every year but can’t seem to get past teams ahead of them. They struggle mightily on defense – the NBA’s 2nd worst in defensive rating. That won’t get it done and is a recipe for a first round exit.

8. Phoenix Suns (VegasInsider Rank: 7, +1400)

7. Denver Nuggets (VegasInsider Rank: 8, +2500)

6. Utah Jazz (VegasInsider Rank: 4, +700)

I need to address all the Mountain West teams at once; while Denver is unfortunately shorthanded without Jamal Murray, they have won 11 of their last 15 games and Michael Porter Jr has embraced the co-star role with presumed MVP Nikola Jokic. Aaron Gordon has been a seamless addition, and they seem to be the Clippers’ kryptonite. I can see them giving everyone but the Nets trouble en route to a title. Still, it’s hard to see this team getting out of the West without Murray’s firepower.

That leaves us with the West’s #1 and 2 seeds, which have never felt weaker compared to years past. Utah has been without its All-Star backcourt of Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley Jr for some time. Can they hit the on-switch when it matters most? Sure, they can probably take down whoever ends up as the 8th seed, but they don’t seem equipped to make it out of the West.

Phoenix is even more of a wild card. How will Devin Booker perform in his playoff debut? How about DeAndre Ayton? Can 36-year old Chris Paul lead this team if they were to face, say, the Lakers in Round 1 (if healthy)? Sure Paul has been fantastic – particularly in the clutch – but we’ve seen this before from him during the regular season. Overall, inexperience kills in a grueling 7-game series, and that will come back to bite them eventually.

Can a #1 and 2 seed be upset in the first round? Don’t be surprised to see this happen for the first time.

5. Milwaukee Bucks (VegasInsider Rank: 6, +900)

Although they didn’t dominate the regular season as they did the last two years, this team feels better than before with their retooled roster. Jrue Holiday is a huge upgrade over Eric Bledsoe. Khris Middleton has had a sneaky good season. PJ Tucker should help them with the intangibles.

And yet, both Vegas and I don’t see the Bucks as serious threats. Mike Budenholzer has had his struggles adjusting in playoff situations before, and I don’t see them getting past the 2nd round. They’ll likely face off against Brooklyn, whom they beat twice recently in a back-to-back set, but barely (by 3 and 6 points) and didn’t have to deal with James Harden.

4. Philadelphia 76ers (VegasInsider Rank: 5, +800)

Daryl Morey and Doc Rivers have shown why they will always have jobs, no matter how much they are scapegoated in their previous respective stints with the Rockets and Clippers. They have retooled Philly’s roster to become a defensive powerhouse, and appear to have the two-headed monster of Embiid and Simmons playing well together – despite many people being convinced that the two can’t co-exist.

That being said, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them being ousted in the 2nd round to their likely opponent, our #3 ranked team:

3. Miami Heat (VegasInsider Rank: 9, +3500)

We’ve seen this movie before: a team that seemingly has struggles during the regular season, doesn’t even get homecourt advantage in the first round, and just romps through the conference. Combine the fact that their mediocre record can be attributed to being the 4th-most affected team by COVID, and they appear to be just as formidable as last year heading into the postseason.

Not so coincidentally, the Heat have been playing extremely well of late and clearly won’t be afraid of anyone seeded ahead of them. Jimmy Butler has taught us not to underestimate his team before.

Here we go again this year: the Heat have won 6 of their last 7 – and btw, Jimmy missed that one loss.

2. Brooklyn Nets (VegasInsider Rank: 1, +230)

Despite having played 7 games together, the Big 3 of KD, Harden, and Kyrie are perceived as impossibly difficult to defeat in a playoff series. And rightfully so; despite missing literally months of action, both KD and Harden seem to always hit the ground running.

  • KD after missing 27 games: 17p, 7r, 5a, +22 in 18 minutes
  • Harden after missing 20 of 21 games: 18p, 11a, 7r in 25 minutes

Do these guys even need to play together before the playoffs? Does rhythm and chemistry building even matter for them? It doesn’t look that way, and their 1st round matchup against one of the play-in teams should suffice as a warm-up period.

1.LA Clippers (VegasInsider Rank: T-2, +500)

Despite how great they’ve looked during stretches of the season and the veteran leadership they acquired this year, this team somehow feels slept on. Paul George might have some classic ‘Pandemic P’ performances, but the team has surrounded itself with enough talent to offset any off-nights that he might have. Given that the West looks somewhat weaker than before, the Clippers’ strengths will overcome their flaws – unless they face Denver again.

Also, despite their load managing practices and on-and-off availability of their top players, check out where they rank as a team this season:

  • 3P% – 1st
  • 3PM – 3rd (behind Utah and Portland)
  • Net Rating – 2nd (behind Utah)
  • FT% – 1st

For a team that was coasting, that’s pretty good.

Photo Credit: ClipsNation

I expect them to win the West with relative ease and face off against Brooklyn in what should be an epic Finals showdown. I give an ever-so-slight edge to the Clippers only because I’m not sure how KD will hold up over the course of an entire playoff run with his hamstring and Achilles issues. That, and the Nets winning would make a complete mockery out of the regular season.

In either case, the real winner: load management.

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2020-21 NBA Season Award Predictions

As we approach opening night, nine of our team members put together their award predictions for the upcoming season. Here’s how the Fansure team sees everything playing out:

Part One:

AwardMarcellus WileyTom HaberstrohVijayScottCole
MVPLuka DončićLuka DončićLuka DončićLuka DončićLuka Dončić
ROYLaMelo BallDeni AvdijaLaMelo BallLaMelo BallJames Wiseman
DPOYAnthony DavisBen SimmonsGiannis AntetokounmpoAnthony DavisBen Simmons
6MOYLou WilliamsShake MiltonSpencer DinwiddieCaris LeVertDennis Schröder
Most ImprovedMichael Porter JrCoby WhiteChristian WoodTyler HerroShai Gilgeous-Alexander
COYMonty WilliamsRick CarlisleRick CarlisleMonty WilliamsDoc Rivers
#1 East SeedBrooklynMilwaukeeMilwaukeeMilwaukeeMilwaukee
#1 West SeedLA LakersLA ClippersDallasDenverLA Lakers
East ChampsBrooklynMiamiMilwaukeeMilwaukeeMilwaukee
West ChampsLA ClippersLA LakersLA ClippersLA LakersLA Lakers
NBA ChampsLA ClippersLA LakersLA ClippersLA LakersLA Lakers
Finals MVPKawhi LeonardAnthony DavisKawhi LeonardAnthony DavisLeBron James

Part Two:

AwardJordanDanNikhilPatrick
MVPLuka DončićLuka DončićLuka DončićLuka Dončić
ROYObi ToppinJames WisemanLaMelo BallJames Wiseman
DPOYBam AdebayoBen SimmonsAnthony DavisGiannis Antetokounmpo
6MOYCaris LeVertJordan ClarksonJordan ClarksonLou Williams
Most ImprovedCoby WhiteChristian WoodChristian WoodTyler Herro
COYBrad StevensMonty WilliamsSteve NashErik Spoelstra
#1 East SeedMilwaukeeMilwaukeeMilwaukeeBrooklyn
#1 West SeedLA LakersLA LakersLA LakersLA Lakers
East ChampsBostonPhiladelphiaMilwaukeeMiami
West ChampsLA LakersLA LakersLA LakersLA Lakers
NBA ChampsLA LakersLA LakersLA LakersLA Lakers
Finals MVPAnthony DavisAnthony DavisLeBron JamesAnthony Davis

Analysis:

MVP: Despite this being the most contentiously debated title nearly every year, this is the only award that the team had a unanimous consensus on in terms of a prediction: Luka Dončić, who is a +400 to win the award, is our favorite to claim the Maurice Podoloff trophy. Dončić, a 21-year old Slovenian, is our pick to win his first MVP and would be the second-youngest player to ever win the title (Derrick Rose).

Luka Doncic is erasing the European prospect stigma, one highlight at a time - SBNation.com
Dončić is our unanimous MVP

Rookie of the Year: This should arguably be the toughest award to debate, given the pandemic has robbed us of learning anything about this year’s rookie class and has given us almost no data to inform our predictions. Most of the team, though, is split between James Wiseman and LaMelo Ball – the second and third picks in the 2020 NBA draft, respectively.

One-offs include Washington’s Devin Avdija and New York’s Obi Toppin. Avdija, Tom Haberstroh’s pick, is rumored to have been high on the Warriors’ ladder before they ended up going with Wiseman.

Defensive Player of the Year: Another category that our team was split on: AD is the slight favorite getting 3 votes, with Giannis and Ben Simmons tied for second place with 2 each.

Understandably, no one on the team picked two-time winners Kawhi Leonard (2015 & 2016) and Rudy Gobert (2018 & 2019) as only three players in NBA history have ever won the award more than twice (Ben Wallace and Dikembe Mutombo have each won 4, and Dwight Howard is the only player to have won three straight). Giannis, the 2020 recipient, is going to try to be the only player in NBA history to win MVP for the third straight year and win back-to-back DPOY titles.

Sixth Man of the Year: Relatively even split again here; Clarkson, LeVert, and Lou Williams (3-time winner) garnered two votes each. Lou is currently tied with Jamal Crawford for the most 6th man titles, and is poised to break that tie and become the only player to ever win 4.

Most Improved: This is one of the near-impossible awards to predict – especially with a very quick offseason for most players. Still, we saw a couple of players with multiple votes: Christian Wood (3) and Tyler Herro (2). In the bubble, Herro showed the world on the biggest stage how much he has already improved, leading some to wonder if he will be ‘penalized’ if he picks up where he left off after the NBA Finals. Michael Porter Jr. (Marcellus Wiley’s pick) could suffer that same ‘penalty’ with his play elevating Denver to an improbable conference finals appearance.

Coach of the Year: As the undefeated team (8-0) in the bubble, the Suns are positioned to make a big playoff push after adding CP3. This could be why Monty Williams is the slight majority winner in our panel with three votes. Unlike the other individual categories, this award seemed to have the most variability among our team with Carlisle being the only other coach to get multiple votes. 5 of the 9 votes were unique (Erik Spoelstra, Doc Rivers, Brad Stevens, and Steve Nash). 46% of NBA GMs consider Spoelstra to be the best coach today – making it seem odd that he hasn’t won the award yet.

Playoff Predictions:

Unsurprisingly, the Lakers are the Fansure team’s favorite to win both the West and the Finals, getting 75% of our votes. This is consistent with betting activity, with heavy money being put on the defending champs to repeat. The remaining two of our team members picked the “other” LA team to win – with Marcellus “Mr. Clippers” Wiley predictably being one of them. Of the six team members who are predicting a Laker title, four have picked LeBron’s running mate to win the Finals MVP honor. Could this be the year LeBron takes a back seat to his co-star?

Ultimately, the team unanimously foresees the Larry O’Brien trophy staying put at Staples.

Although the Lakers are favorites, not everyone has them pegged as the #1 seed; Dallas and Denver each received one vote for that title. This is likely not a knock on the Lakers, but rather the notion that LeBron and AD, whose team has had only a 72-day offseason, will commence significantly more load management during the regular season.

The East predictions show a little more variability; while most have Milwaukee again securing the #1 seed, the Nets, Celtics, and 76ers each received votes by our team to represent the East in the NBA Finals.

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Why We Underestimated Jimmy Butler & the Heat

https://www.slamonline.com/nba/post-up-the-jimmy-butler-effect-2/
LAKE BUENA VISTA, FLORIDA - AUGUST 31: Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat drives the ball against Marvin Williams #20 of the Milwaukee Bucks during the first quarter in Game One of the Eastern Conference Second Round during the 2020 NBA Playoffs at the Field House at ESPN Wide World Of Sports Complex on August 31, 2020 in Lake Buena Vista, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

“Nah, they’re not for real.”

Said Charles Barkley on Inside the NBA back on December 28th, right after an overtime win vs. the Sixers. This gave the Heat a five game winning streak along with a 24-8 record.

I’ll admit: despite Sir Charles’s well-documented inability to predict games accurately, I was in agreement with him at the time. While I’ve long been a Jimmy apologist to his critics (primarily Bulls fans), it was hard to see a team without at least two established star players making any kind of noise in the playoffs. After all, Miami came into the season with low expectations and play in a weak conference despite signing Butler as a free agent. Right before Barkley’s declaration, they had played against a Philly team that had lost their 10th of 14 road games – an ominous sign of things to come. The Heat were just in a honeymoon phase with their prized free agent signing, a rising star in Bam Adebayo, and some promising rookies, right? And were enjoying a favorable stretch of their schedule, right?

Wrong.

These Heat are for real. Fast forward to these Bubble Playoffs, where Miami just surprised many of us by handily defeating a heavy favorite #1 seed in Game 1. This took place shortly after disposing of an Indiana team with such ease that the Pacers decided to fire their coach.

So why did we (the majority) get the Heat wrong? It’s likely a combination of these three main reasons:

  1. We overestimated Milwaukee
  2. We underestimated Jimmy Butler
  3. We undervalue cultural alignment between a team and its star player

Reason 1: We Overestimated Milwaukee

There’s a growing camp of folks who attributed Game 1’s loss to Miami as some combination of: Milwaukee’s overrated, Giannis is overrated, and the Bucks don’t have a closer. All of which are valid arguments.

ESPN’s Amin Elhassan – who had started a “Heat Island” prior to the start of the series as one of the few to predict an upset – cited several concerns about Milwaukee on Tom Haberstroh’s “Habershow” podcast. The rationale was based on the Bucks’ reputation (and Amin’s own observation) of continued failure to adjust over the course of a playoff series. Amin argued that they’ve traditionally banked on the fact that their talent and game plan will eventually win 4 games in a series. This faulty strategy manifested as long ago as last season, when the Bucks dropped Game 1 of the 2019 Eastern Conference Semis vs. Boston. While they eventually won the series – thanks in part to the Celtics’ chemistry issues that started to boil over – it appeared that part of the equation was the Bucks’ long-standing vulnerability.

The Bucks’s issues resurfaced as soon as the playoffs started, having dropped Game 1 by double digits to an overmatched Orlando Magic team. Unlike the Magic’s improbable Game 1 win in last year’s playoffs vs. the eventual 2019 champion Raptors, this was a convincing win that once again had us questioning Milwaukee’s ability to contend for a title. While it didn’t bite them in that series, those same concerns came full circle.

The criticism of Milwaukee starts with their franchise player, Giannis Antetokoumnpo. Just as after last year’s conference finals loss vs. Kawhi and the eventual-champ Raptors, Giannis’s ability to win playoff games is once again being questioned. When a good defensive team like Miami barracades the paint, Giannis’s ability to impact the game becomes limited and his weaknesses – primarily outside shooting – become more glaring. Going 4-12 from the foul line certainly doesn’t help that sentiment either.

Giannis Antetokounmpo: Free throws a bigger issue than 3-pointers
Giannis Antetokounmpo’s confidence at the free throw line has been shaky, missing 8 of 12 attempts in Game 1 on Sunday. Photo Credit: NBAE via Getty Images

Still, as much as we now pick apart Giannis and the Bucks, one can’t help but attribute Game 1’s loss to their opponent rather than themselves.

Reason 2: We Underestimated Jimmy Butler

Not your traditional superstar, Jimmy Butler didn’t become an elite player overnight. In fact, he was the final 1st round pick in 2011 when he was scouted as a potential defensive specialist – far from a potential franchise player and leader. A 10-year veteran, the 30-year old’s career stats haven’t screamed ‘superstar’: 17.0/5.1/3.7 in terms of points/rebs/assists with a 20.3 career PER. But his body of work has not gone unnoticed – especially by the media; he’s a five-time All-Star who’s been named All-NBA player twice (TBD for 2019-20) – both as a third team selection in 2016-17 and 2017-18. Despite ranking 55th in the league in Real Plus-Minus, he has earned a reputation for being a great defender from the get-go, having won All-Defense honors four times in his career.

Jimmy’s 40-point Game 1 outburst – where he completely dictated the game offensively and defensively – was a playoff career-high. Although a highly impressive performance and perhaps his greatest playoff game to date, that’s 15th among active players when purely looking at single game point production.

RankPlayerPlayoff Career High
(Points)
1Donovan Mitchell57
2LeBron James51
3Russell Westbrook51
4Kevin Durant50
5Jamal Murray50
6Damian Lillard50
7Paul George49
8Stephen Curry47
9Anthony Davis47
10Kawhi Leonard45
11James Harden45
12Nikola Jokić43
13Kyrie Irving42
14Giannis Antetokounmpo 41
15Jimmy Butler 40
Source: Basketball Reference

The optics will tell you that Jimmy is a very good player, but not an elite playoff performer. What may not stick out in the history books is that particular performance came against the NBA’s #1 defense.

So have we underestimated Jimmy Butler, the individual? Maybe a little, but the eye test and superficial stats say not likely, as his play has translated into multiple All-Star, All-NBA and All-Defense selections. So that leaves one other possible reason we underestimated Miami…

Reason 3: We Undervalue Cultural Alignment Between Team and Its Star Player

Prior to this season, Jimmy was quickly given the above-average-player-who-can’t-get-along-with-teammates label. After all, it didn’t work out in Chicago. Or Minnesota. Or in some respects, Philadelphia. Whenever we see outspoken players experience chemistry issues on multiple teams, the conventional formula for these narratives is to blame the player (e.g. Kyrie) instead of the team(s).

In other words, the jury has always been out there on whether Jimmy can be a franchise player (or put up franchise player-worthy stats) – let alone whether he can get along with teammates. Here’s what we’ve never debated: his work ethic, will to win, year-to-year improvement, and status as arguably the league’s best small forward behind LeBron, Kawhi, and KD (when healthy).

The question with Jimmy, as with many players, is finding the right fit.

Culturally, it’s no secret that Butler can only function in a team that’s completely committed to hard work and winning. Jimmy is a notorious gym rat. So when he sees his teammates not put in a respectable level of effort, he calls them out. This obviously does not rub off well on many players in today’s NBA, and Butler hasn’t been shy about calling out teammates. It got him in trouble in Chicago, despite being co-signed by D-Wade. It got him in trouble in Minnesota. It was about to get him in trouble in Philly, but he and the Sixers figured out relatively quickly that he didn’t fit in. In an interview with his then-teammate JJ Redick, he detailed his butting heads with former teammates and his growing reputation as a “villain.” If his time in Miami so far has taught us anything, it’s that a team’s culture can be more important than its talent pool.

If Butler thought that Philly truly had a winning culture, he would have re-signed. If a deep playoff run that was ended by a miraculously clutch Kawhi buzzer beater wasn’t enough to convince him, that says a lot about what he felt. And after Philly got swept in the first round the year after they lost Butler to free agency, it’s safe to say the team is asking “what if?” Just ask Joel Embiid.

But work ethic and culture only gets you so far. One of the biggest key issues with team chemistry is, unsurprisingly, money; how the team manages its allocation to players is certainly an underlying issue with team chemistry. In other words, does a team compensate its players in accordance with its culture? And are the players on board with that structure? It’s often the elephant in the room in NBA locker rooms when player salaries are public.

YEARTEAMSALARYTeam Rank
2011-12Bulls$821,74812th
2012-13Bulls$1,066,92012th
2013-14Bulls$1,112,88010th
2014-15Bulls$2,008,74810th
2015-16Bulls$15,257,5002nd (D. Rose)
2016-17Bulls$16,402,2092nd (D. Wade)
2017-18Bulls-Wolves$18,151,0701st
2018-19Wolves-Sixers$19,295,7792nd (J. Embiid)
2019-20Heat$32,742,0001st
Jimmy Butler’s annual salary along with his team rank. Source: Capology.com

At a quick glance, he sure wasn’t in a Scottie Pippen-like situation. His main complaint from a contract perspective wasn’t with Chicago, but rather with the Wolves; although he was the highest paid at the time, it was primarily because the Wolves’ younger stars were on rookie contracts. That season, the team already committed lucrative extensions to Karl-Anthony Towns ($190M/5 years) and Andrew Wiggins ($146M/5 years) which would kick in the following season(s). Clearly, Minnesota positioned Towns and Wiggins to be their franchise cornerstones and put Jimmy lower on their priority list. So when the Wolves offered him $110M over 4 years, it’s easy to understand the frustration – especially since Jimmy didn’t believe Towns or Wiggins have the work ethic and mental makeup to turn the team into a winning franchise.

In short, it’s important for a franchise to put their money where their mouth is. And how they pay players speaks volumes about what their culture and mentality really is.

Now this isn’t to say that the Heat have always gotten this right. In fact, one can argue that Pat Riley grossly mismanaged the franchise’s all-time greatest asset, Dwyane Wade. Understandably, Riley was cautious about locking Wade in for long-term deals due to his chronic health issues. But on the other side, he deviated from his usual formula by offering questionable contracts to the likes of Hassan Whiteside in that same time period rather than reward Wade for his past sacrifices – most notably taking less money to orchestrate perhaps the biggest free agency splash of all-time in 2010 by bringing in LeBron and Chris Bosh. Feeling disrespected, Wade decided to leave Miami for Chicago out of principle – even though the Bulls didn’t give him much more ($47.5M/2 years) than what Miami offered ($40M/2 years).

Although Riley and Wade had since set aside their differences to bring Wade back for his final seasons, Wade’s disappointment in Riley could make it difficult for any future superstar to fully trust Riley to take care of them long term.

Jimmy Butler says he's, 'a little extra at times,' wants to deliver extra to Heat - South Florida Sun Sentinel - South Florida Sun-Sentinel
Photo Credit: Sun Sentinel

It’s safe to say Riley learned his lesson and didn’t want to repeat the mistakes of Jimmy’s former teams. He ignored all the “warning signs” and signed Butler to a 4-year $142M contract, establishing him as the franchise player from both a cultural and monetary perspective. He knew that the issues Butler had at his previous stints were a pure result of a lack of cultural fit and his former teams’ failure to understand his importance as a foundational piece.

Miami now has a clear direction, and a commitment to build around a hard-working star who is willing to accept the growing pains of a young team, but won’t accept less than full effort.

And so far, it’s working.

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NBA “Load Management”

Load management has been among the most debated topics in the NBA so far in the 2019-20 season. When Kawhi Leonard sat out two nationally televised games within a week – including a highly anticipated rematch against Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks on Wednesday, November 6th – the media expressed their displeasure with the LA Clippers’ decision to sit out the defending Finals MVP, as did fans.

That criticism and a $50,000 fine hasn’t stopped the Clippers from preserving the long-term health of their prized free agency acquisition. He has now missed six of the Clippers’ first 19 games of the still-early NBA season with no signs of playing in full sets of upcoming back-to-back games.

The question is – what can anyone do about it? Well, at Fansure, we can protect the cost of your game tickets based on whether Kawhi plays. Our machine learning algorithm also gives us the ability to predict the likelihood of Kawhi (or any NBA player) sitting out of a specific game. Check out our future outlook for upcoming Clippers games:

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is kawhi-pg-sit-risk-11-28-19.jpg

For comparison’s sake, we included Paul George who recently recovered from shoulder surgeries in the offseason. So far, George has not seen any restrictions in playing time and has not missed any games since making his return. But, it is highly likely that the team will strategically rest him to preserve him for their highly expected deep playoff run.

While Kawhi has been considered the ‘face’ of load management, other notable players including Kristaps Porzingis, Damian Lillard, Russell Westbrook, and others have taken games off out of precaution this season.

If you are looking to buy tickets to a game to see Kawhi, George, or any star player, please check our website at https://fansure.com to protect your ticket purchase for upcoming games!

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2020 NBA All-Star Roster Predictions

Monday January 20th at 11:59p EST is the deadline for fans, players, and the media to put in their votes for their All-Star starters.  In the spirit of this, we are making our predictions for the pool of starters and reserves for the 2020 NBA All-Star game in Chicago this February.

These selections assume that the latest release of All-Star votes from fans are relatively set, and also factor in the biases from players and coaches that inevitably go into their choices.  Where possible, though, our Player Index is a great indicator of who we can expect to don an All-Star uniform in February.  Or at least, it should be; what other metric better captures the desired balance between popularity and on-court performance?!

Now before we get into our selections, it’s worth pointing out some of the quirks and constraints that went into this.  Despite the NBA making sweeping changes to the All-Star selection process – such as having the leading vote-getter from each conference (most likely to be LeBron and Giannis – the same captains for the 2019 game) serve as the team captains and “draft” their reserve teams – the selection process itself has a few issues that will impact the way voting will unfold:

Jimmy Butler Miami
Miami’s Jimmy Butler may lose a starting All-Star roster spot due to his position label (Photo Credit: Andy Lyons, Getty Images)
  1. Despite efforts to make positions more flexible, the ambiguity between the “frontcourt” and “backcourt” labels makes it difficult to assign a position to some of the versatile wing players who waver between the two.  Jimmy Butler, for instance, could be snubbed out of a starting spot because he was labeled as a frontcourt player. Now, he should be a starting guard since Miami has the second best record in the East under his leadership and he has very consistently played the two-guard position with the Heat all year.  With Kemba Walker likely to garner votes from the media and players to earn a starting backcourt position, he is likely going to be paired with either Atlanta’s Trae Young, Brooklyn’s Kyrie Irving or Philadelphia’s Ben Simmons rather than the deserving Jimmy Buckets.
  2. Injuries: Make no mistake: the NBA has been devastated by long-term injuries to some of its greatest superstars.  The game won’t be the same without its usual perennial stars such as the former Warriors superstar trio of Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, and Klay Thompson or other soon-to-be perennial stars such as Victor Oladipo.  There are also a handful of great players who missed too many games to be considered viable candidates – such as Kyrie Irving, Karl-Anthony Towns and Blake Griffin. To make it simple, we’ve eliminated anyone who’s missed more than 20 games.
Golden State Warriors v Los Angeles Lakers
Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, and Klay Thompson are three of many megastars missing this year’s All-Star game. (Photo Credit: SLAM Online)

Let’s get into our picks:

Eastern Conference

Starters:

Backcourt: Kemba Walker + Ben Simmons

Frontcourt: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Pascal Siakam, Joel Embiid

Backcourt Starters Analysis: Although fan votes currently have Kyrie Irving and Trae Young in the starting spots, we are predicting these will be offset by the media and players’ votes.  In addition to his shoulder injury causing him to miss 26 of 41 games, Kyrie’s questionable leadership over the last few years and recent comments may have people scratching their heads.  Young, on the other hand, has skyrocketed in popularity (ranked 15th overall on our Fansure Index) and has made tremendous strides in his game. However, he may be penalized by his team’s performance as the Hawks are vying for the league’s worst record at 10-34 (the Knicks are 1 game ahead, for context).  Also, the media and players tend to be biased toward players who have more years under their belt.

kemba
Despite falling below the top two guard spots in the fan vote, Kemba should get the starting nod (Photo Credit: Boston Globe)

Kemba Walker has the led the Celtics to very respectable 27-14 record in the East, and seems to be highly respected by the media as evidenced by his All-NBA selection last year (over Klay Thompson, who wasn’t too happy about it and was given a slightly less lucrative contract extension as a result).  Ben Simmons, despite the heavy scrutiny at his apparent unwillingness to shoot outside jumpers and his team’s underachieving so far, has done just  enough to establish the 76ers as contenders in the East – particularly with Joel Embiid missing 13 of 44 games. You can also bet that LeBron, one of the likely captains, will want to pick his buddy Simmons (who he traded for in last year’s draft) when he makes his selections on Thursday, February 6th.

Again, one can’t help but notice that Jimmy Butler should be starting at one of these positions with Miami exceeding everyone’s expectations holding the #2 spot in the East.  Maybe they’ll correct his position label next year.

Frontcourt Starters Analysis: No explanation necessary for Giannis, who is making a strong case to defend his title as the NBA’s regular season MVP. Siakam and Embiid, who are Top 10 overall in All-Star voting, are likely to get the nod from media and players as well.

East Reserves:

Guards: Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry

Forwards/Center: Jayson Tatum, Khris Middleton, Nikola Vucevic

Wildcards: Domantas Sabonis, Trae Young

East Reserves Analysis: Coaches, who still have exclusive voting rights to the reserves, generally have two criteria for selecting reserves: 1) your team is winning and 2) you’ve “paid your dues” (i.e. been snubbed in the past enough times).  In the East, however, there are slim pickings – making it a bit easier for coaches to go just off the best teams and make sure they are represented by at least one player.

With Butler as an obvious choice, and only 5 teams seen as serious East title contenders, we are predicting that coaches will select a 2nd player to go with each contender.  That gives us Lowry (Toronto) to pair with starting Siakam, Middleton to pair with Giannis, and Tatum with Kemba.  Some strongly suspect that Bam Adebayo will be seen as a strong candidate to pair with Jimmy Butler, and his numbers back it up (16/10/5), but we’re not entirely sure he will be picked ahead of the other front court prospects.  Tobias Harris is a great choice as well, but assuming fellow Sixers Simmons and Embiid are selected, we are predicting that coaches won’t reward Philly’s so-so season with 3 All-Stars.

That leaves us Indiana, who needs someone to represent them as they have quietly overachieved without Oladipo – who is hopeful to make his return on Jan 29th from a gruesome knee injury suffered last season.  We have Domantas Sabonis on the roster, but we can see Malcolm Brogdon getting the nod as well. Orlando is also comfortably in the Top 8, thanks to their consistent big man Nikola Vucevic – who will likely get selected for a second straight season.

So who gets the final spot?  Brogdon, Trae Young, Bradley Beal, and Zach LaVine are all possible candidates.  Our educated guess goes to Trae Young, who is putting up stellar numbers despite his team’s poor record.  Young is also already 15th on our Player Index and is well ahead of everyone else under consideration.

Now on to the more difficult selections…

Western Conference

Starters:

Backcourt: Luka Doncic + James Harden

Frontcourt: LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, Anthony Davis

Starters Analysis: Overall, the fan vote matches our predictions for who makes the starting squad.  One can argue that Nikola Jokic should get a frontcourt spot, but Denver has had some noticeably flat performances this season and it is hard to argue in favor of omitting one of the LA superstars.

West Reserves Analysis: It has been an annual tradition to snub 2-3 very deserving candidates in the West.  Damian Lillard, LaMarcus Aldridge, CJ McCollum, Rudy Gobert and many others can tell you how hard it is to crack the top 12.  Let’s start with the players who we think will *for sure* make it:

With Denver and Utah positioning themselves to secure home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, Donovan Mitchell and Nikola Jokic are locks to get voted in by the coaches.  Mitchell, who will be a first-time All-Star, has certainly paid his dues in the eyes of coaches and has his Jazz team firing on all cylinders of late – winning 10 of their last 11 games.

dm_200119_thunder_chris_paul_default
Despite many predicting him to request a trade to play elsewhere, CP3 has the Thunder in comfortable playoff position (Photo Credit: ESPN)

The other success story that will almost certainly be rewarded in the form of an All-Star bid is the Oklahoma City Thunder’s surprisingly decent season.  This almost guarantees Chris Paul will be selected, as his leadership has been well documented and is a worthy accomplishment that coaches will recognize.  Shea Gilgeous-Alexander, who was the key trade chip in the trade that sent Paul George to the Clippers, has been a huge part of why the Thunder have played this well – but his time will come later.

This leaves us two frontcourt openings and two wildcards.  With the West as loaded as it is, we’re looking at several potential candidates on winning teams: George, Gobert, Porzingis, and Russell Westbrook to name a few.  Then there are the great players whose teams are having subpar seasons: Lillard, McCollum, Aldridge, DeMar DeRozan, Devin Booker, KAT, and Wiggins. Let’s also not forget rookie sensation Ja Morant, who has led the Grizzlies to the 8th seed in the West (!!) and created a level of excitement in Memphis that hasn’t been seen or hoped for since Jason Williams.  So how do we narrow this down?

PG13, despite having missed 17 games, is likely going to be voted in by the coaches coming off his All-NBA season last year with the Thunder.  He’s also perceived as a star carrying the load for the Clippers through the load managed season of his superstar teammate Kawhi. He remains a key reason why the Clippers are still managing to contend for a Top-2 seed in the West.

Everyone else is anyone’s guess.  The remaining frontcourt spot will likely go to Gobert, who has publicly expressed disappointment in years past and might elicit a sympathy vote from coaches.  So who gets the two remaining wildcard spots? It’s very hard to see a former MVP and triple-double machine Westbrook be on the outside looking in.  Given Houston is still a winning team, and Russ still puts tremendous pressure on opposing defenses, it is unlikely for coaches to pass on him.

Lou Williams would give the Clippers a third All-Star, which would not be warranted from the coaches’ perspective unless the Clippers were running away with the league’s best record.  The remaining spot, therefore, is bound to go to a player whose team has a losing record.  San Antonio, Portland, Phoenix, and Minnesota all have All-Star caliber players, but only one can get selected.  Our guess goes to Lillard, who is still in our Top 10 Fansure Player Index rankings and has been snubbed too many times in the past for coaches to do it again.  Personally, I would vote for Ja Morant. But it’s a given that coaches generally don’t vote for rookies (even LeBron in 2004) unless they are otherworldly exceptional and their teams have winning records.

Here’s a summary view of our picks this year:

2020 All-Star Selections
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These fans got their tickets reimbursed by Fansure when star players sat out.

For those who are still on the fence whether or not to take advantage of our player protection service – i.e. the option to protect your game day tickets based on whether a player of your choice ends up playing in the game you attend – maybe these success stories will help change your mind.

1. Kyrie Irving vs. Boston, 11/29/19 | $110 reimbursed: André from Portugal came all the way to New York to see his favorite player, Kyrie Irving, take on the Boston Celtics (his former team).  At the time, Kyrie was questionable for that game even though he had missed his return to Boston the game before (the front end of the home-and-home between the two teams).  Luckily for André, he protected his tickets for only $26 to get his money back.

2. Paul George vs. Memphis, 1/4/2020 & Kawhi vs. NY Knicks, 1/5/2020 | $194 reimbursed: Jacob from Los Angeles is a season ticket holder for the LA Clippers.  He’s had to deal with the frequent disappointment of Kawhi Leonard pretty much punting any back-to-back games – something he did not expect when he made his initial investment prior to the start of the season.  Fortunately, Jacob protected his tickets for both games knowing that Paul George‘s health was questionable as well.  For $48, Jacob was able to get the monetary peace of mind that he’d get his near $200 back for protecting his tickets through Fansure.

Image result for paul george kawhi leonard bench
Leonard and George have sat out frequently in their first season together
(Photo Credit: Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)

3. Pascal Siakam vs. Portland, 1/7/2020 | $165 reimbursed: Fowad from Toronto knew that Pascal Siakam has been dealing with injuries this season.  So when he bought three tickets at $55/each to see his Raptors take on the Portland Trailblazers, he wanted to make sure his $165 investment wouldn’t be tainted by Pascal’s absence. Fowad not only got his tickets reimbursed for a mere $12/ticket, but actually got to see a thrilling game that ended with a vintage Carmelo Anthony hitting a game winner – albeit against the team he was rooting for.  Still, I’m sure Fowad was happy to protect his tickets and get a great game going experience!

Next time you go to a game, bear in mind that you could be the next person to get to go to a game for free if a player of your choice sits out.  After all, Why Pay If They Don’t Play?

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Introducing the Fansure Feed


At Fansure, we recognize the importance of seeing the world’s best athletes competing. We know that seeing your favorite player makes all the difference in one’s experience, whether it’s LeBron James, Cristiano Ronaldo, or Roger Federer.

When star players are unable to give it a go for whatever reason – be it injury, rest (aka load management), personal reasons, suspensions, or any other reason – it can disappoint a lot of people including fans, TV networks, and any other paying customer. We are here to help in that situation!

Launched in October 2019, Fansure aims to protect the financial well-being of those with a vested interest in seeing star players perform. Currently, we offer a service to fans who purchase NBA tickets with the primary intent of seeing a particular player (e.g. LeBron, Steph Curry, Kawhi Leonard) and want to get reimbursed their ticket cost if that designated player ends up sitting out of that particular game.

Going forward, we aim to scale and offer our player-based protection to all major professional sports not only for fans, but companies who have a financial interest in a star player being available for games. Be sure to follow our blog so we can keep you posted!

Also, don’t forget to protect your ticket for any future NBA game today. Why pay if they don’t play?